Annecy 0-2 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bastia at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Bastia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Annecy host Bastia at Parc des Sports in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Annecy — All Games: 2W 3D 4L from 9 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 0.89 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 22% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy at Parc des Sports this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Sports. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bastia have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bastia — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Annecy in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 56% of games.
Bastia in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Annecy 22% | Bastia 22%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Annecy 22% | Bastia 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.01 xG and Bastia 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.634 / defence 0.979 | Bastia attack 0.981 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.169. Annecy's attack strength of 0.634 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bastia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.255 — this is suppressing Annecy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Annecy games / 47 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 32% | Draw 30% | Bastia 38%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Bastia 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 25% | Bastia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 32% | Draw 30% | Bastia 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Annecy 1.01 / Bastia 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.634 / def 0.979 | Bastia attack 0.981 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Bastia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Bastia xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Bastia kick off?
Annecy vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Bastia?
Annecy 0 - 2 Bastia.
Where is Annecy vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Bastia part of?
Annecy vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 32% chance of winning, Bastia a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Annecy and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Bastia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Annecy and Bastia in?
Annecy (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 0.89 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Bastia (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Annecy's attack at 0.63x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
32%
3.10
30%
3.37
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.13
1.12
Bastia xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
14%
7.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Annecy and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Annecy and 1.12 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy's recent record stands at 2W 3D 4L from 9 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 4L across 9 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bastia by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Annecy heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bastia's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bastia's season.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.11 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Annecy have seen both teams score in 22% of their recent games; Bastia in 22%.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Bastia in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Bastia in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while Bastia have gone 4W 1D 4L in their last 9 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Bastia away?
Annecy's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.00 PPG; Bastia away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Annecy or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Bastia in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and Bastia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Annecy go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Bastia won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Annecy's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Annecy
2
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Bastia?
From 8 meetings on record, Annecy have won 3, Bastia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Bastia 0-2 Annecy.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 25%, Bastia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Annecy) and 75% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 50% of games; Bastia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Annecy's recent matches and 50% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Annecy's recent games and 75% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Bastia tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Bastia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bastia cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Annecy 0-2 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.01 xG and Bastia 1.12 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Annecy fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bastia outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.63 / defence 0.98 against Bastia attack 0.98 / defence 1.25, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 32% | Draw 30% | Bastia 38%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 22%, Bastia 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 22%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bastia's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bastia arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bastia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.