Nancy 0-0 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Grenoble at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nancy vs Grenoble encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Nancy welcome Grenoble to Stade Marcel Picot. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nancy — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nancy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nancy have posted 3W 1D 6L at Stade Marcel Picot — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Grenoble stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Grenoble have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Nancy) versus 1.30 (Grenoble). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Grenoble, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Nancy.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Grenoble winning.
It is worth noting that Grenoble have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Nancy trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Grenoble trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nancy 44% versus Grenoble 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nancy 52% | Grenoble 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 1.10 xG and Grenoble 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.785 / defence 1.255 | Grenoble attack 0.976 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.207. Nancy's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Nancy games / 57 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nancy 28% | Draw 26% | Grenoble 46%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Grenoble 2.17. Grenoble hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Grenoble as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grenoble offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Nancy 30% | Grenoble 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Marcel Picot • Kick-off: Friday 20 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 28% | Draw 26% | Grenoble 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Nancy 1.10 / Grenoble 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.785 / def 1.255 | Grenoble attack 0.976 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Grenoble xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nancy vs Grenoble kick off?
Nancy vs Grenoble kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 February 2026 at Stade Marcel Picot.
What was the final score in Nancy vs Grenoble?
Nancy 0 - 0 Grenoble.
Where is Nancy vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs Grenoble part of?
Nancy vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 28% chance of winning, Grenoble a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Nancy and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Nancy vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Grenoble?
Record (3 meetings): Nancy 0W | Draws 0 | Grenoble 3W.
What form are Nancy and Grenoble in?
Nancy (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Grenoble (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nancy's attack rating (0.79) and Grenoble's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Grenoble's attack versus Nancy's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
28%
3.56
26%
3.85
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Nancy xG
Total xG
2.58
1.48
Grenoble xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
6%
15.64
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Nancy and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Nancy and 1.48 for Grenoble, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, Nancy have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 7W 4D 12L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nancy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Grenoble's form line: 6W 9D 8L from 23 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-D. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nancy on 1.09 PPG, Grenoble on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nancy have posted 1.18 PPG from 11 outings (4W 1D 6L).
On the road, Grenoble have gone 2W 3D 6L from 11 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Nancy are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 1.04 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grenoble in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nancy and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 7W 4D 12L in their last 23 games (1.09 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 6W 9D 8L in their last 23 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nancy at home or Grenoble away?
Nancy's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nancy at home: 1.18 PPG; Grenoble away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2021, when Grenoble won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nancy's record when hosting Grenoble specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nancy
1
Draws
3
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Grenoble?
From 4 meetings on record, Nancy have won 0, Grenoble have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nancy and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Nancy 0-0 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Nancy and Grenoble?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nancy 27%, Grenoble 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Nancy) and 54% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Nancy have failed to score in 46% of games; Grenoble in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nancy play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Nancy's recent matches and 73% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nancy vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Nancy's recent games and 54% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nancy and Grenoble tend to score early?
Nancy have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nancy's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Marcel Picot, Regular Season - 24, as Nancy and Grenoble drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 1.10 xG and Grenoble 1.48 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nancy fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Grenoble landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.79 / defence 1.25 against Grenoble attack 0.98 / defence 1.20, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nancy 28% | Draw 26% | Grenoble 46%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 52%, Grenoble 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nancy's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Grenoble's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nancy 1.09 PPG, Grenoble 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nancy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.