Metz 2-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Metz vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Metz and Guingamp meet at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Metz have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Metz haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Metz have posted 0W 2D 8L at Stade Saint-Symphorien — 0.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Guingamp haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.40 for Metz, 0.60 for Guingamp — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Metz have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Guingamp in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Metz 2W, Guingamp 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2025, ended 3–0 with Metz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Metz — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Guingamp — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 50% versus Guingamp 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 62% | Guingamp 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 1.22 xG and Guingamp 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Guingamp attack 0.962 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.258. Data: 0 Metz games / 34 Guingamp games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Metz 31% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 39%. Fair-value odds: Metz 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Guingamp 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Metz 60% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 31% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Metz 1.22 / Guingamp 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Guingamp attack 0.962 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Metz xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Guingamp xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs Guingamp kick off?
Metz vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:45 on Saturday 8 August 2026 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Guingamp?
Metz 2 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Metz vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Guingamp part of?
Metz vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 31% chance of winning, Guingamp a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Metz and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Guingamp?
Record (4 meetings): Metz 2W | Draws 1 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Metz and Guingamp in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Metz (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Metz's attack rating (0.85) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (0.96x) against Metz's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
31%
3.19
29%
3.42
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Metz xG
Total xG
2.61
1.39
Guingamp xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
8%
12.85
12%
8.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.2 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Metz and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Metz and 1.39 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Metz come into this having played 34 games, going 3W 8D 23L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. Metz haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.18 PPG from 34 outings (10W 10D 14L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. Guingamp haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Guingamp carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Metz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Metz's home form reads 2W 4D 11L across 17 games on their own ground, a 0.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Guingamp have taken 1.00 points per game from 17 outings (4W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Metz are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 2.24 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.24 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Pre-Season
Guingamp
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metz and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 3W 8D 23L in their last 34 games (0.50 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 10W 10D 14L in their last 34 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 0.59 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Metz have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guingamp won 3-6 on 12 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Metz have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Metz
1
Draws
1
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Guingamp?
From 5 meetings on record, Metz have won 3, Guingamp have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Metz 2-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Guingamp?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Metz see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 47%, Guingamp 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Metz) and 65% (Guingamp). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Metz have failed to score in 47% of games; Guingamp in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metz play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Metz's games and 65% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Metz vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Metz's matches and 65% of Guingamp's.
Do Metz and Guingamp tend to score early?
Metz have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Metz defy the odds to beat Guingamp 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz beat Guingamp 2-1 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.22 xG and Guingamp 1.39 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Guingamp attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 31% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 39%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Metz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 62%, Guingamp 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Guingamp's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Metz winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Metz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.