Metz 1-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Metz at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Metz vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Metz and Guingamp meet at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Friday 25 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Metz have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Metz have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stade Saint-Symphorien — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Metz, 1.30 for Guingamp — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Metz 0W, Guingamp 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Metz — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Guingamp — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 60% versus Guingamp 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 56% | Guingamp 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 2.02 xG and Guingamp 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 1.260 / defence 1.066 | Guingamp attack 0.915 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.142. Metz carry an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — their λ of 2.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 9 Metz games / 47 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metz 58% | Draw 21% | Guingamp 20%. Fair-value odds: Metz 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | Guingamp 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Metz (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Metz at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Metz 80% | Guingamp 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 58% | Draw 21% | Guingamp 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Metz 2.02 / Guingamp 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 1.260 / def 1.066 | Guingamp attack 0.915 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Metz (58%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Metz xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Guingamp xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs Guingamp kick off?
Metz vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 October 2024 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Guingamp?
Metz 1 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is Metz vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Guingamp part of?
Metz vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 58% chance of winning, Guingamp a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Metz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Metz and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Guingamp?
Record (2 meetings): Metz 0W | Draws 1 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Metz and Guingamp in?
Metz (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Metz vs Guingamp?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Metz's attack rating (1.26) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (0.92x) against Metz's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Metz Win
58%
1.72
21%
4.70
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Metz xG
Total xG
3.13
1.11
Guingamp xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
13%
7.54
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
3%
36.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Metz and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Metz and 1.11 for Guingamp, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Guingamp?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Metz come into this having played 45 games, going 12W 9D 24L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.36 PPG from 45 outings (16W 13D 16L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Metz against 1.36 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Metz's home form reads 5W 6D 11L across 22 games on their own ground, a 0.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Guingamp have taken 1.45 points per game from 22 outings (9W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Metz are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.24 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Metz have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Guingamp in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metz and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 12W 9D 24L in their last 45 games (1.00 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 16W 13D 16L in their last 45 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 0.95 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Metz or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Metz have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Guingamp in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Metz have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guingamp won 3-6 on 12 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Metz have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Metz
1
Draws
1
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Guingamp?
From 4 meetings on record, Metz have won 2, Guingamp have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Guingamp 0-3 Metz.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Guingamp?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 59%, Guingamp 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Metz) and 41% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Guingamp in 41%; Metz have failed to score in 32% of games; Guingamp in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metz play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Metz's recent matches and 41% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Metz vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Metz's recent games and 41% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Guingamp tend to score early?
Metz have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Metz edge out Guingamp 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz beat Guingamp 1-0 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 2.02 xG and Guingamp 1.11 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Metz fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Guingamp landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 1.26 / defence 1.07 against Guingamp attack 0.92 / defence 1.10, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 58% | Draw 21% | Guingamp 20%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 56%, Guingamp 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Guingamp's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Metz 1.00 PPG, Guingamp 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metz win broke the near-deadlock. Metz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.