Le Havre 3-1 Nimes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Nimes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Le Havre host Nimes at Stade Océane in Ligue 2 (matchday 19). Kick-off is Friday 13 January 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Le Havre — last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.10 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 9 clean sheets from 10 games (90%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Le Havre's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Nimes have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Nimes have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Le Havre carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Le Havre, 1 for Nimes and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 12 Mar 2022, ended Le Havre 0–1 Nimes — a Nimes win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Nimes in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 38% versus Nimes 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 32% | Nimes 50%). Note also that Nimes surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Le Havre recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.42 xG and Nimes 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 1.094 / defence 0.669 | Nimes attack 0.898 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.007. Le Havre have a tight defence (rating 0.669), which is pulling Nimes's projected output down. Data: built from Le Havre's last 56 games and Nimes's last 56.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 57% | Draw 28% | Nimes 16%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 1.77 | Draw 3.58 | Nimes 6.45. The model has a clear lean to Le Havre (57%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Nimes's lower xG of 0.60 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Le Havre 40% (last 10 home games) | Nimes 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Nimes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 19 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Friday 13 January 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 57% | Draw 28% | Nimes 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Le Havre 1.42 / Nimes 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 1.094 / def 0.669 | Nimes attack 0.898 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Nimes xG
35%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Le Havre vs Nimes FAQs
What time does Le Havre vs Nimes kick off?
Le Havre vs Nimes kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 13 January 2023 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Nimes?
Le Havre 3 - 1 Nimes.
Where is Le Havre vs Nimes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Nimes part of?
Le Havre vs Nimes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 19) (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Nimes?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 57% chance of winning, Nimes a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Nimes?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Le Havre and Nimes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Le Havre vs Nimes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (1.09) and Nimes's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nimes's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Le Havre's last 56 games and Nimes's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 2-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
57%
1.77
28%
3.58
16%
6.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.02
0.60
Nimes xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
6.45
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.88
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
55%
1.83
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
31%
3.24
4%
26.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 11.3 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 8.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Le Havre vs Nimes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Nimes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Nimes expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.60 for Nimes, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Nimes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Le Havre's recent record stands at 24W 17D 15L from 56 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Nimes, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 27L across 56 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Le Havre by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nimes heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Le Havre have managed 12W 8D 8L from their last 28 home games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nimes's away record stands at 8W 6D 14L across their last 28 away games, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Nimes are on 1.07 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Nimes
Blended
Le Havre (Home) vs Nimes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Le Havre
Blended
Nimes
Blended
❓ Le Havre vs Nimes Form FAQs
What form are Le Havre and Nimes in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 24W 17D 15L in their last 56 games (1.59 PPG), while Nimes have gone 18W 11D 27L in their last 56 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Nimes away?
Le Havre's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.57 PPG; Nimes away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Nimes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Nimes in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 15 April 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Le Havre have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Le Havre's record when hosting Nimes specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Le Havre
0
Draws
1
Nimes
Recent Meetings
❓ Le Havre vs Nimes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Nimes?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Le Havre have won 3, Nimes have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Nimes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 April 2023: Nimes 0-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Nimes?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 39%, Nimes 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Le Havre) and 54% (Nimes).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 29% of games; Nimes in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Nimes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Le Havre vs Nimes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Le Havre and Nimes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Le Havre's recent matches and 50% of Nimes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Le Havre and Nimes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Le Havre's recent games and 54% of Nimes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Nimes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Le Havre's recent matches and 71% of Nimes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nimes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Nimes 3-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.42 xG and Nimes 0.60 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Le Havre beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 1.09 / defence 0.67 against Nimes attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 57% | Draw 28% | Nimes 16%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 32%, Nimes 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Nimes's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. Nimes (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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