Le Havre 1-0 Sochaux – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Le Havre at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Sochaux encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sochaux make the trip to Stade Océane to face Le Havre in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Tuesday 10 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Le Havre's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.10 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 9 clean sheets from 10 games (90%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Le Havre have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stade Océane — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Océane. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.80 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Océane this season.
Sochaux (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sochaux's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward Le Havre. A 0.70 PPG lead over Sochaux (2.40 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Le Havre lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with Sochaux winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Le Havre — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sochaux — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 38% versus Sochaux 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 33% | Sochaux 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.33 xG and Sochaux 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 1.127 / defence 0.771 | Sochaux attack 1.070 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 0.982. Le Havre's defence rating of 0.771 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Le Havre games / 55 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 49% | Draw 28% | Sochaux 23%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Sochaux 4.35. Le Havre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Le Havre at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 40% | Sochaux 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 49% | Draw 28% | Sochaux 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Le Havre 1.33 / Sochaux 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 1.127 / def 0.771 | Sochaux attack 1.070 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.112 / away 0.982 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Sochaux xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Sochaux kick off?
Le Havre vs Sochaux kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 10 January 2023 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Sochaux?
Le Havre 1 - 0 Sochaux.
Where is Le Havre vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Sochaux part of?
Le Havre vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 49% chance of winning, Sochaux a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Le Havre and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Sochaux?
Record (2 meetings): Le Havre 1W | Draws 0 | Sochaux 1W.
What form are Le Havre and Sochaux in?
Le Havre (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Sochaux (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Le Havre's attack at 1.13x the league average against Sochaux's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sochaux's attack (1.07x) against Le Havre's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
49%
2.04
28%
3.53
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.14
0.81
Sochaux xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
6%
16.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.7 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.81 for Sochaux, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Le Havre's recent record stands at 23W 17D 15L from 55 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sochaux, meanwhile, have gone 28W 15D 12L across 55 games — 1.80 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Le Havre against 1.80 for Sochaux. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Le Havre have managed 11W 8D 8L from 27 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sochaux's away record stands at 11W 7D 9L across 27 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Le Havre are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 1.31 scored and 0.84 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; Sochaux in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Sochaux
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Sochaux in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 23W 17D 15L in their last 55 games (1.56 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 28W 15D 12L in their last 55 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Sochaux away?
Le Havre's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.52 PPG; Sochaux away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Sochaux in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sochaux — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Le Havre
1
Draws
1
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Sochaux?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 2, Sochaux have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Sochaux 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Sochaux?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 41%, Sochaux 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Le Havre) and 48% (Sochaux).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sochaux in 41%; Le Havre have failed to score in 30% of games; Sochaux in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Sochaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Le Havre's recent matches and 48% of Sochaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Le Havre's recent games and 48% of Sochaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Sochaux tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Le Havre edge out Sochaux 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Sochaux 1-0 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.33 xG and Sochaux 0.81 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sochaux landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 1.13 / defence 0.77 against Sochaux attack 1.07 / defence 1.06, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 49% | Draw 28% | Sochaux 23%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 33%, Sochaux 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sochaux's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.56 PPG, Sochaux 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Sochaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.