Laval 1-1 RED Star FC 93 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Laval at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs RED Star FC 93 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees RED Star FC 93 travel to Stade Francis Le Basser to take on Laval. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 January 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Laval stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Laval's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stade Francis Le Basser this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, RED Star FC 93 have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, RED Star FC 93 have posted 3W 1D 5L from 9 away outings — 1.11 PPG. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Laval 1.70 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Laval, 0 for RED Star FC 93 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2024, ended 3–0 with Laval winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Laval trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
RED Star FC 93 trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 53% versus RED Star FC 93 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 53% | RED Star FC 93 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.66 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 1.085 / defence 1.059 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.940 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.026. Data: 55 Laval games / 17 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 52% | Draw 25% | RED Star FC 93 23%. Fair-value odds: Laval 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | RED Star FC 93 4.35. Laval hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Laval are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Laval offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Laval 60% | RED Star FC 93 44%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Friday 10 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 52% | Draw 25% | RED Star FC 93 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Laval 1.66 / RED Star FC 93 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 1.085 / def 1.059 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.940 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.026 • Poisson stance: Laval (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.02
RED Star FC 93 xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Laval vs RED Star FC 93 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 January 2025 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs RED Star FC 93?
Laval 1 - 1 RED Star FC 93.
Where is Laval vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Laval vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 52% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Laval and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and RED Star FC 93?
Record (1 meetings): Laval 1W | Draws 0 | RED Star FC 93 0W.
What form are Laval and RED Star FC 93 in?
Laval (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Laval's attack at 1.08x the league average against RED Star FC 93's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus Laval's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
52%
1.92
25%
3.98
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Laval xG
Total xG
2.68
1.02
RED Star FC 93 xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
4%
22.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Laval and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Laval and 1.02 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Laval's recent record stands at 8W 4D 5L from 17 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RED Star FC 93, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 8L across 17 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Laval by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over RED Star FC 93 heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Laval have managed 4W 2D 2L from 8 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RED Star FC 93's away record stands at 3W 1D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Laval come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Laval are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.06 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
RED Star FC 93
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 8W 4D 5L in their last 17 games (1.65 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 6W 3D 8L in their last 17 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
Laval's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.75 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when Laval won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Laval's record when hosting RED Star FC 93 specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Laval
2
Draws
2
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and RED Star FC 93?
From 5 meetings on record, Laval have won 1, RED Star FC 93 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Laval and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Laval 1-2 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between Laval and RED Star FC 93?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 62%, RED Star FC 93 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Laval) and 38% (RED Star FC 93).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play RED Star FC 93?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Laval's games and 50% of RED Star FC 93's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Laval vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Laval's recent games and 38% of RED Star FC 93's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Laval and RED Star FC 93 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 18, as Laval and RED Star FC 93 drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.66 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.02 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 1.08 / defence 1.06 against RED Star FC 93 attack 0.94 / defence 1.15, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 52% | Draw 25% | RED Star FC 93 23%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 53%, RED Star FC 93 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Laval arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.