Laval 1-2 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Dunkerque at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Laval vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Laval welcome Dunkerque to Stade Francis Le Basser. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Laval — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Stade Francis Le Basser, Laval have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Francis Le Basser this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dunkerque stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Dunkerque away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Dunkerque — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Laval, 0 for Dunkerque and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 2–0 with Laval winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Laval in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Dunkerque in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 50% versus Dunkerque 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Laval 36% | Dunkerque 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.11 xG and Dunkerque 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 0.966 / defence 1.294 | Dunkerque attack 0.964 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.076. Data: 66 Laval games / 28 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 30% | Draw 28% | Dunkerque 41%. Fair-value odds: Laval 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Dunkerque 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dunkerque at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dunkerque offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Laval 70% | Dunkerque 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 30% | Draw 28% | Dunkerque 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Laval 1.11 / Dunkerque 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 0.966 / def 1.294 | Dunkerque attack 0.964 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Dunkerque xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Dunkerque kick off?
Laval vs Dunkerque kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Dunkerque?
Laval 1 - 2 Dunkerque.
Where is Laval vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Dunkerque part of?
Laval vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 30% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Laval and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Dunkerque?
Record (1 meetings): Laval 1W | Draws 0 | Dunkerque 0W.
What form are Laval and Dunkerque in?
Laval (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Dunkerque (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Laval's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Dunkerque's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Laval's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
30%
3.31
28%
3.51
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Laval xG
Total xG
2.45
1.34
Dunkerque xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
8%
12.69
14%
7.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Laval and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Laval and 1.34 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Laval's recent record stands at 13W 9D 6L from 28 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Dunkerque, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 12L across 28 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Laval by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dunkerque heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Laval have managed 4W 5D 4L from 13 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dunkerque's away record stands at 5W 4D 4L across 13 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Laval are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 0.96 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Laval have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Current Season
Dunkerque
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 13W 9D 6L in their last 28 games (1.71 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 9W 7D 12L in their last 28 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Dunkerque away?
Dunkerque's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.31 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Laval or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Laval's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Laval
1
Draws
2
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Dunkerque?
From 6 meetings on record, Laval have won 3, Dunkerque have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Dunkerque 0-2 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Dunkerque?
Laval have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Laval see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Dunkerque see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 69%, Dunkerque 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Laval) and 46% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Dunkerque in 31%; Dunkerque in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Dunkerque?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Laval's games and 46% of Dunkerque's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Laval vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Laval's recent games and 46% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Dunkerque edge out Laval 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat Laval 1-2 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.11 xG and Dunkerque 1.34 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.97 / defence 1.29 against Dunkerque attack 0.96 / defence 1.01, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 30% | Draw 28% | Dunkerque 41%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 36%, Dunkerque 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Dunkerque's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Laval arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Dunkerque winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.