Guingamp 1-2 Lorient – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 49%, yet in-form Lorient provide a compelling counter-argument — this Guingamp vs Lorient fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Guingamp host Lorient at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 April 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Guingamp — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Guingamp at Stade du Roudourou this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade du Roudourou. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lorient stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lorient's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lorient — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Guingamp have won 0, Lorient 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 1–3 with Lorient winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Guingamp in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Lorient in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 43% versus Lorient 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 52% | Lorient 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.56 xG and Lorient 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.126 / defence 0.934 | Lorient attack 1.058 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.060. Data: 67 Guingamp games / 29 Lorient games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 49% | Draw 25% | Lorient 25%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Lorient 4.00. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lorient (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Guingamp 20% | Lorient 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Lorient | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Apr 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 49% | Draw 25% | Lorient 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Guingamp 1.56 / Lorient 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.126 / def 0.934 | Lorient attack 1.058 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Lorient xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Lorient kick off?
Guingamp vs Lorient kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Lorient?
Guingamp 1 - 2 Lorient.
Where is Guingamp vs Lorient being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Lorient part of?
Guingamp vs Lorient is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Lorient?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 49% chance of winning, Lorient a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Lorient?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Guingamp and Lorient will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Lorient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Lorient?
Record (1 meetings): Guingamp 0W | Draws 0 | Lorient 1W.
What form are Guingamp and Lorient in?
Guingamp (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Lorient (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 1.13x the league average against Lorient's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lorient's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
49%
2.03
25%
3.95
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.61
1.05
Lorient xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
5%
18.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Lorient?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Lorient expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.05 for Lorient, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Lorient?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guingamp's recent record stands at 26W 14D 23L from 63 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Lorient, meanwhile, have gone 26W 12D 25L across 63 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.46 PPG, Lorient on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Guingamp have managed 12W 9D 10L from 31 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lorient's away record stands at 9W 7D 15L across 31 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Lorient are on 1.57 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Current Season
Lorient
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Lorient in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 26W 14D 23L in their last 63 games (1.46 PPG), while Lorient have gone 26W 12D 25L in their last 63 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Lorient away?
Guingamp's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.45 PPG; Lorient away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Lorient been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Lorient in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Guingamp
0
Draws
2
Lorient
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Lorient?
From 2 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 0, Lorient have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Lorient last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Guingamp 1-2 Lorient.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Lorient?
Lorient have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 39%, Lorient 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Guingamp) and 55% (Lorient). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 32% of games; Lorient in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Lorient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Lorient?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Guingamp's recent matches and 48% of Lorient's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Lorient usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Guingamp's matches and 55% of Lorient's.
Do Guingamp and Lorient tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Lorient in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lorient defy the odds to beat Guingamp 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lorient beat Guingamp 1-2 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.56 xG and Lorient 1.05 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lorient outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.13 / defence 0.93 against Lorient attack 1.06 / defence 1.00, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 49% | Draw 25% | Lorient 25%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Lorient win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 52%, Lorient 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Lorient's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.46 PPG, Lorient 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lorient win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lorient (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.