Guingamp 1-4 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guingamp and Annecy meet at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 February 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Guingamp have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stade du Roudourou — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Annecy's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Guingamp's 1.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Annecy's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Guingamp, 1 for Annecy and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 4–1 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 50% versus Annecy 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 45% | Annecy 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.48 xG and Annecy 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.107 / defence 1.132 | Annecy attack 0.804 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.093. Data: 60 Guingamp games / 60 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 48% | Draw 26% | Annecy 25%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Annecy 4.00. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 40% | Annecy 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 48% | Draw 26% | Annecy 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Guingamp 1.48 / Annecy 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.107 / def 1.132 | Annecy attack 0.804 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Annecy xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Annecy kick off?
Guingamp vs Annecy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Annecy?
Guingamp 1 - 4 Annecy.
Where is Guingamp vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Annecy part of?
Guingamp vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 48% chance of winning, Annecy a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Guingamp and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Annecy?
Record (3 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 1 | Annecy 1W.
What form are Guingamp and Annecy in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Annecy (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.11) and Annecy's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (0.80x) against Guingamp's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
48%
2.06
26%
3.82
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.48
0.99
Annecy xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
6%
17.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.99 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Guingamp come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 18D 19L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.08 PPG from 60 outings (15W 20D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Guingamp against 1.08 for Annecy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Guingamp's home form reads 10W 8D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 0.79 points per game from 29 outings (4W 11D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guingamp are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.02 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Annecy in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 23W 18D 19L in their last 60 games (1.45 PPG), while Annecy have gone 15W 20D 25L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Annecy away?
Guingamp's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.31 PPG; Annecy away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Annecy in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Annecy have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Annecy won 0-4 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Annecy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Guingamp
2
Draws
4
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Annecy?
From 8 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Annecy have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Annecy 1-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 48%, Annecy 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Guingamp) and 59% (Annecy). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guingamp have failed to score in 34% of games; Annecy in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Guingamp's recent matches and 48% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Guingamp's matches and 59% of Annecy's.
Do Guingamp and Annecy tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Annecy in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Annecy run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Guingamp 1-4 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.48 xG and Annecy 0.99 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Annecy outscored their 0.99 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.11 / defence 1.13 against Annecy attack 0.80 / defence 1.10, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 48% | Draw 26% | Annecy 25%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Annecy win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 45%, Annecy 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Annecy's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.45 PPG, Annecy 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.