Estac Troyes 2-1 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Estac Troyes and Bordeaux meet at Stade de l'Aube in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 February 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Estac Troyes (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estac Troyes have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stade de l'Aube — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bordeaux's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bordeaux's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Estac Troyes, 1 for Bordeaux and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Estac Troyes winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bordeaux — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 64% versus Bordeaux 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 56% | Bordeaux 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.48 xG and Bordeaux 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.012 / defence 1.242 | Bordeaux attack 0.988 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.093. Bordeaux bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Estac Troyes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Estac Troyes games / 59 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 41% | Draw 25% | Bordeaux 34%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Bordeaux 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estac Troyes are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 60% | Bordeaux 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 41% | Draw 25% | Bordeaux 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Estac Troyes 1.48 / Bordeaux 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 1.012 / def 1.242 | Bordeaux attack 0.988 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Bordeaux xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux?
Estac Troyes 2 - 1 Bordeaux.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux part of?
Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 41% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Estac Troyes and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Bordeaux?
Record (3 meetings): Estac Troyes 2W | Draws 0 | Bordeaux 1W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Bordeaux in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Bordeaux (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Estac Troyes's attack at 1.01x the league average against Bordeaux's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bordeaux's attack (0.99x) against Estac Troyes's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 22/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
41%
2.46
25%
3.99
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.82
1.34
Bordeaux xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
11%
9.42
8%
12.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.34 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 9W 21D 29L from 59 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bordeaux, meanwhile, have gone 28W 14D 17L across 59 games — 1.66 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bordeaux by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estac Troyes heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 5W 13D 11L from 29 games — 0.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bordeaux's away record stands at 10W 7D 12L across 29 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.29 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bordeaux in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Bordeaux
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 9W 21D 29L in their last 59 games (0.81 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 28W 14D 17L in their last 59 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Bordeaux away?
Bordeaux's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 0.97 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Bordeaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Bordeaux in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Estac Troyes have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estac Troyes have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bordeaux — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Estac Troyes
0
Draws
1
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Bordeaux?
From 4 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 3, Bordeaux have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Estac Troyes 2-1 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Bordeaux?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 66%, Bordeaux 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Estac Troyes) and 45% (Bordeaux).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux in 31%; Estac Troyes have failed to score in 31% of games; Bordeaux in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Bordeaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 66% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 41% of Bordeaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 45% of Bordeaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Estac Troyes edge out Bordeaux 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Bordeaux 2-1 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.48 xG and Bordeaux 1.34 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.01 / defence 1.24 against Bordeaux attack 0.99 / defence 1.21, drawn from 22/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 41% | Draw 25% | Bordeaux 34%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 56%, Bordeaux 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Bordeaux's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bordeaux arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Estac Troyes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.