Grenoble 1-3 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Grenoble at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grenoble vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Grenoble host Annecy at Stade des Alpes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 19 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Grenoble stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Grenoble have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Grenoble at Stade des Alpes this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Grenoble are significantly better at Stade des Alpes than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Annecy have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Grenoble at 1.10 PPG versus Annecy's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Grenoble, 1 for Annecy and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 1–3 with Annecy winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Grenoble in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Annecy in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 54% versus Annecy 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 54% | Annecy 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.21 xG and Annecy 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.989 / defence 0.885 | Annecy attack 0.775 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.061. Data: 39 Grenoble games / 39 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 48% | Draw 30% | Annecy 22%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Annecy 4.55. Grenoble hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grenoble are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grenoble offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Grenoble 70% | Annecy 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Friday 19 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 48% | Draw 30% | Annecy 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 36% | xG Grenoble 1.21 / Annecy 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 0.989 / def 0.885 | Annecy attack 0.775 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Annecy xG
36%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Annecy kick off?
Grenoble vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 September 2025 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Annecy?
Grenoble 1 - 3 Annecy.
Where is Grenoble vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Annecy part of?
Grenoble vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 48% chance of winning, Annecy a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Grenoble and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Annecy?
Record (6 meetings): Grenoble 3W | Draws 2 | Annecy 1W.
What form are Grenoble and Annecy in?
Grenoble (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Annecy (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Grenoble's attack at 0.99x the league average against Annecy's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Grenoble's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
48%
2.10
30%
3.32
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Grenoble xG
Total xG
1.94
0.73
Annecy xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
7%
15.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 10.5 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 12.7 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Grenoble and 0.73 for Annecy, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Grenoble come into this having played 39 games, going 14W 9D 16L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Grenoble, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.44 PPG from 39 outings (15W 11D 13L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Grenoble on 1.31 PPG, Annecy on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Grenoble's home form reads 9W 6D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Grenoble are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 1.05 points per game from 19 outings (5W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grenoble come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Grenoble are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.18 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Early Season
Annecy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Annecy in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 14W 9D 16L in their last 39 games (1.31 PPG), while Annecy have gone 15W 11D 13L in their last 39 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Annecy away?
Grenoble's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.74 PPG; Annecy away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Annecy in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Grenoble's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Grenoble
3
Draws
3
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Annecy?
From 9 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 3, Annecy have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Grenoble 1-2 Annecy.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 58%, Annecy 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Grenoble) and 37% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Annecy in 32%; Annecy in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Grenoble's recent matches and 42% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Grenoble's recent games and 37% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and Annecy tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Annecy in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Grenoble.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Grenoble 1-3 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.21 xG and Annecy 0.73 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Annecy outscored their 0.73 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.99 / defence 0.89 against Annecy attack 0.78 / defence 0.98, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 48% | Draw 30% | Annecy 22%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Annecy win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 54%, Annecy 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Annecy's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.31 PPG, Annecy 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Grenoble (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.