Estac Troyes 1-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Estac Troyes at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs Amiens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 34 as Estac Troyes welcome Amiens to Stade de l'Aube. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 May 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Estac Troyes have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Estac Troyes's home record at Stade de l'Aube: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Aube. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amiens stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Amiens's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Estac Troyes) versus 1.40 (Amiens). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Estac Troyes have won 2, Amiens 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2025, ended 3–0 with Estac Troyes winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Estac Troyes in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Amiens in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 44% versus Amiens 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 49% | Amiens 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.29 xG and Amiens 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.804 / defence 0.811 | Amiens attack 0.763 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.102. Data: 71 Estac Troyes games / 71 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 51% | Draw 29% | Amiens 20%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Amiens 5.00. Estac Troyes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estac Troyes at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 10% | Amiens 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 51% | Draw 29% | Amiens 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 36% | xG Estac Troyes 1.29 / Amiens 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.804 / def 0.811 | Amiens attack 0.763 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Amiens xG
36%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Amiens kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Amiens kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Amiens?
Estac Troyes 1 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Amiens part of?
Estac Troyes vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 51% chance of winning, Amiens a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Estac Troyes and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Amiens?
Record (3 meetings): Estac Troyes 2W | Draws 1 | Amiens 0W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Amiens in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Amiens (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
51%
1.95
29%
3.44
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
1.98
0.68
Amiens xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
5%
18.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 9.5 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.2 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 0.68 for Amiens, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estac Troyes come into this having played 71 games, going 21W 20D 30L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.35 PPG from 71 outings (25W 21D 25L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estac Troyes on 1.17 PPG, Amiens on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Estac Troyes's home form reads 13W 9D 13L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 1.03 points per game from 35 outings (9W 9D 17L).
The Goals Picture
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.04 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Current Season
Amiens
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Amiens in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 21W 20D 30L in their last 71 games (1.17 PPG), while Amiens have gone 25W 21D 25L in their last 71 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Amiens away?
Estac Troyes's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.37 PPG; Amiens away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Amiens in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estac Troyes and Amiens runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Estac Troyes have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jan 2025, when Estac Troyes won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
0
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Amiens?
From 6 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 5, Amiens have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when Amiens 0-2 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Amiens?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 46%, Amiens 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Estac Troyes) and 40% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Estac Troyes have failed to score in 34% of games; Amiens in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 40% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 40% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Amiens tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Amiens in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Estac Troyes edge out Amiens 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Amiens 1-0 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.29 xG and Amiens 0.68 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.80 / defence 0.81 against Amiens attack 0.76 / defence 1.11, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 51% | Draw 29% | Amiens 20%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 49%, Amiens 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Amiens's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.17 PPG, Amiens 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.