Concarneau 1-0 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Concarneau face Estac Troyes.

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Analysis

Estac Troyes make the trip to Stade Francis-Le Blé to face Concarneau in Ligue 2 (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Tuesday 23 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time.

Current Form

Concarneau's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Concarneau's home record over their last 9 home games: 2W 2D 5L (0.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Estac Troyes (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, Estac Troyes have posted 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Concarneau against 1.50 for Estac Troyes. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Concarneau 0–0 Estac Troyes — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Concarneau — key trading statistics (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Concarneau 35% versus Estac Troyes 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Concarneau 40% | Estac Troyes 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Concarneau 1.01 xG and Estac Troyes 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concarneau attack 0.823 / defence 1.389 | Estac Troyes attack 0.829 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.134. Concarneau's defence rating of 1.389 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Estac Troyes's projected output up. Data: built from Concarneau's last 20 games and Estac Troyes's last 20.

Result probabilities: Concarneau 29% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 43%. Fair-value odds: Concarneau 3.48 | Draw 3.59 | Estac Troyes 2.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Estac Troyes at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Concarneau 56% (last 9 home games) | Estac Troyes 60% (last 10 away games).

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