Ajaccio 1-0 Concarneau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajaccio at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajaccio vs Concarneau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Concarneau make the trip to Stade François Coty to face Ajaccio in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 January 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ajaccio's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajaccio's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Stade François Coty this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade François Coty. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Ajaccio are significantly better at Stade François Coty than their overall form suggests.
Concarneau (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Concarneau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Concarneau's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ajaccio, 1 for Concarneau and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Concarneau winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Ajaccio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Concarneau goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Ajaccio 33% | Concarneau 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajaccio 38% | Concarneau 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.18 xG and Concarneau 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 1.022 / defence 0.859 | Concarneau attack 0.769 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.133. Data: 21 Ajaccio games / 21 Concarneau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 46% | Draw 31% | Concarneau 23%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Concarneau 4.35. Ajaccio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajaccio are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajaccio if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 50% | Concarneau 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Concarneau | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 46% | Draw 31% | Concarneau 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 36% | xG Ajaccio 1.18 / Concarneau 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 1.022 / def 0.859 | Concarneau attack 0.769 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Concarneau xG
36%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Concarneau kick off?
Ajaccio vs Concarneau kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Concarneau?
Ajaccio 1 - 0 Concarneau.
Where is Ajaccio vs Concarneau being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Concarneau part of?
Ajaccio vs Concarneau is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Concarneau?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 46% chance of winning, Concarneau a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Concarneau?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Ajaccio and Concarneau will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Concarneau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Concarneau?
Record (1 meetings): Ajaccio 0W | Draws 0 | Concarneau 1W.
What form are Ajaccio and Concarneau in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Concarneau (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ajaccio's attack rating (1.02) and Concarneau's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Concarneau's attack (0.77x) against Ajaccio's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
46%
2.17
31%
3.28
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
1.93
0.75
Concarneau xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
7%
13.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 10.9 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.8 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Concarneau?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Concarneau expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Ajaccio and 0.75 for Concarneau, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Concarneau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 21 outings, Ajaccio have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 8W 6D 7L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Concarneau's form line: 7W 4D 10L from 21 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Concarneau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Ajaccio against 1.19 for Concarneau. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ajaccio have posted 2.20 PPG from 10 outings (6W 4D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Ajaccio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Concarneau have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ajaccio are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Concarneau are on 0.90 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Blended
Concarneau
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Concarneau in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 8W 6D 7L in their last 21 games (1.43 PPG), while Concarneau have gone 7W 4D 10L in their last 21 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Concarneau away?
Ajaccio's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 2.20 PPG; Concarneau away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Concarneau been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Concarneau in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ajaccio
0
Draws
1
Concarneau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Concarneau?
From 2 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 1, Concarneau have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Concarneau last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Ajaccio 1-0 Concarneau.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Concarneau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 50% (Ajaccio) and 20% (Concarneau) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Ajaccio and 30% for Concarneau.
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Concarneau in 40%; Concarneau in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Concarneau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Concarneau?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 20% of Concarneau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Concarneau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Ajaccio's recent games and 30% of Concarneau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Concarneau tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Concarneau in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajaccio edge out Concarneau 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Concarneau 1-0 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.18 xG and Concarneau 0.75 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 1.02 / defence 0.86 against Concarneau attack 0.77 / defence 0.94, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 46% | Draw 31% | Concarneau 23%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 38%, Concarneau 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Concarneau's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajaccio 1.43 PPG, Concarneau 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajaccio win broke the near-deadlock. Concarneau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.