Bastia 1-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 40%, yet in-form Clermont Foot provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bastia vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Clermont Foot make the trip to Stade Armand Cesari to face Bastia in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Friday 31 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Bastia (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia's home record at Stade Armand Cesari: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Bastia are significantly better at Stade Armand Cesari than their overall form suggests.
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Clermont Foot are 0.90 PPG clear of Bastia in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (1.20 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bastia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Clermont Foot in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Bastia 0W, Clermont Foot 0W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Clermont Foot goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 44% versus Clermont Foot 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 33% | Clermont Foot 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.32 xG and Clermont Foot 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.931 / defence 1.112 | Clermont Foot attack 0.858 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.216. Data: 45 Bastia games / 46 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 40% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 33%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Clermont Foot 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bastia at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Clermont Foot (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 60% | Clermont Foot 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Armand Cesari • Kick-off: Friday 31 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 40% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Bastia 1.32 / Clermont Foot 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.931 / def 1.112 | Clermont Foot attack 0.858 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Bastia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Clermont Foot xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Bastia vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 31 October 2025 at Stade Armand Cesari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Clermont Foot?
Bastia 1 - 0 Clermont Foot.
Where is Bastia vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand Cesari.
What competition is Bastia vs Clermont Foot part of?
Bastia vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 40% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bastia and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Clermont Foot?
Record (2 meetings): Bastia 0W | Draws 2 | Clermont Foot 0W.
What form are Bastia and Clermont Foot in?
Bastia (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bastia's attack rating (0.93) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.86x) against Bastia's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
40%
2.48
27%
3.70
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.48
1.16
Clermont Foot xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
9%
11.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bastia and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Bastia and 1.16 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bastia come into this having played 45 games, going 11W 19D 15L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 1.02 PPG from 45 outings (10W 16D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Bastia against 1.02 for Clermont Foot. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bastia's home form reads 9W 9D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Bastia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Clermont Foot have taken 1.14 points per game from 21 outings (6W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bastia are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 0.93 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 11W 19D 15L in their last 45 games (1.16 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 10W 16D 19L in their last 45 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Clermont Foot away?
Bastia's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.71 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Bastia or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bastia
3
Draws
0
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Clermont Foot?
From 4 meetings on record, Bastia have won 1, Clermont Foot have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Clermont Foot 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Clermont Foot?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 57%, Clermont Foot 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Bastia) and 48% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Clermont Foot in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Bastia's recent matches and 52% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Bastia's recent games and 48% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bastia edge out Clermont Foot 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Clermont Foot 1-0 at Stade Armand Cesari, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.32 xG and Clermont Foot 1.16 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Clermont Foot landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.93 / defence 1.11 against Clermont Foot attack 0.86 / defence 1.09, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 40% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 33%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 33%, Clermont Foot 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.16 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.