Auxerre 0-0 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Auxerre (60%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Auxerre face Valenciennes.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Auxerre welcome Valenciennes to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 2 (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 2 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Auxerre — last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Auxerre at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Valenciennes have recorded 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Valenciennes's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Auxerre: 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Valenciennes, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Aug 2023, ended Auxerre 4–1 Valenciennes — a Auxerre win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Auxerre and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Valenciennes in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 61% versus Valenciennes 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 50% | Valenciennes 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.82 xG and Valenciennes 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.195 / defence 0.980 | Valenciennes attack 0.780 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.091. Valenciennes's defence rating of 1.292 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Auxerre's projected output up. Valenciennes's attack rating of 0.780 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Auxerre's last 26 games and Valenciennes's last 64.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 60% | Draw 23% | Valenciennes 16%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 1.65 | Draw 4.34 | Valenciennes 6.06. The model has a clear lean to Auxerre (60%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Auxerre 60% (last 10 home games) | Valenciennes 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 27 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 60% | Draw 23% | Valenciennes 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Auxerre 1.82 / Valenciennes 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.195 / def 0.980 | Valenciennes attack 0.780 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Valenciennes xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Auxerre vs Valenciennes FAQs
What time does Auxerre vs Valenciennes kick off?
Auxerre vs Valenciennes kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Valenciennes?
Auxerre 0 - 0 Valenciennes.
Where is Auxerre vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Valenciennes part of?
Auxerre vs Valenciennes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 27) (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 60% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Auxerre and Valenciennes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Auxerre vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (1.20) and Valenciennes's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valenciennes's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Auxerre's last 26 games and Valenciennes's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
60%
1.65
23%
4.34
16%
6.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.65
0.83
Valenciennes xG
1.65
60%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
6.06
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
16%
6.17
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
3%
37.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 10.7 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Auxerre vs Valenciennes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.83 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Valenciennes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Auxerre's recent record stands at 22W 20D 22L from 64 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Valenciennes, meanwhile, have gone 12W 24D 28L across 64 games — 0.94 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Auxerre by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valenciennes heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 12W 11D 9L from their last 32 home games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valenciennes's away record stands at 5W 8D 19L across their last 32 away games, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 0.92 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Valenciennes
Blended
Auxerre (Home) vs Valenciennes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Auxerre
Blended
Valenciennes
Blended
❓ Auxerre vs Valenciennes Form FAQs
What form are Auxerre and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 22W 20D 22L in their last 64 games (1.34 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 12W 24D 28L in their last 64 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Valenciennes away?
Auxerre's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.47 PPG; Valenciennes away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Aug 2023, when Auxerre won Valenciennes 1-4 Auxerre.
Auxerre's record when hosting Valenciennes specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Auxerre
1
Draws
0
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Auxerre vs Valenciennes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Valenciennes?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Auxerre have won 3, Valenciennes have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Valenciennes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 March 2024: Auxerre 0-0 Valenciennes.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Valenciennes?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Valenciennes see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 56%, Valenciennes 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Auxerre) and 38% (Valenciennes).
On the defensive side: Valenciennes in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Auxerre vs Valenciennes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Auxerre and Valenciennes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Auxerre's recent matches and 38% of Valenciennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Auxerre and Valenciennes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Auxerre's recent games and 38% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Valenciennes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Auxerre's recent matches and 59% of Valenciennes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Auxerre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre and Valenciennes finished level at 0-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.82 xG and Valenciennes 0.83 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Auxerre fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Valenciennes landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.20 / defence 0.98 against Valenciennes attack 0.78 / defence 1.29, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 60% | Draw 23% | Valenciennes 16%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 50%, Valenciennes 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Valenciennes's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Valenciennes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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