Auxerre 1-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Bastia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Auxerre welcome Bastia to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 2 (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 24 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Auxerre have gone 7W 3D 0L — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Auxerre at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bastia stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Bastia's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Auxerre are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Auxerre, 0 for Bastia and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Auxerre 0–0 Bastia — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Bastia in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 60% versus Bastia 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 51% | Bastia 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.62 xG and Bastia 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.227 / defence 0.971 | Bastia attack 1.041 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.105. Data: built from Auxerre's last 25 games and Bastia's last 63.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 49% | Draw 25% | Bastia 26%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.04 | Draw 4.05 | Bastia 3.81. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Auxerre's last 10 home games and Bastia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Auxerre 60% (last 10 home games) | Bastia 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 26 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 49% | Draw 25% | Bastia 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Auxerre 1.62 / Bastia 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.227 / def 0.971 | Bastia attack 1.041 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Bastia xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Auxerre vs Bastia FAQs
What time does Auxerre vs Bastia kick off?
Auxerre vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Bastia?
Auxerre 1 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Auxerre vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Bastia part of?
Auxerre vs Bastia is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 26) (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 49% chance of winning, Bastia a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Auxerre and Bastia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Auxerre vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 1.23x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Auxerre's last 25 games and Bastia's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
49%
2.04
25%
4.05
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.74
1.12
Bastia xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
5%
19.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Auxerre vs Bastia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.12 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 63 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 22W 19D 22L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Bastia's form line: 25W 15D 23L from 63 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.35 PPG, Bastia on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 1.48 PPG from their last 31 home games (12W 10D 9L).
On the road, Bastia have gone 8W 8D 15L from their last 31 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.25 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bastia in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Bastia
Blended
Auxerre (Home) vs Bastia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Auxerre
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Auxerre vs Bastia Form FAQs
What form are Auxerre and Bastia in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 22W 19D 22L in their last 63 games (1.35 PPG), while Bastia have gone 25W 15D 23L in their last 63 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Bastia away?
Auxerre's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.48 PPG; Bastia away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Bastia in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Auxerre's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Auxerre
3
Draws
0
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Auxerre vs Bastia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Bastia?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Auxerre have won 1, Bastia have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Bastia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 February 2024: Auxerre 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Bastia?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 55%, Bastia 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Auxerre) and 42% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Auxerre have failed to score in 26% of games; Bastia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Auxerre vs Bastia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Auxerre and Bastia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Auxerre's recent matches and 45% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Auxerre and Bastia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Auxerre's recent games and 42% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Bastia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Auxerre's recent matches and 68% of Bastia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre and Bastia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 26, as Auxerre and Bastia drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.62 xG and Bastia 1.12 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.23 / defence 0.97 against Bastia attack 1.04 / defence 1.07, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 49% | Draw 25% | Bastia 26%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 51%, Bastia 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Bastia's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.35 PPG, Bastia 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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