Ajaccio 0-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajaccio at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ajaccio face Amiens.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ajaccio host Amiens at Stade François Coty in Ligue 2 (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 24 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Ajaccio have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Ajaccio at home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Ajaccio are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Amiens stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Amiens have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Ajaccio) versus 1.60 (Amiens). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Ajaccio, 0 for Amiens and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 26 Sep 2023, ended Ajaccio 0–0 Amiens — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Ajaccio in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Amiens in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 33% versus Amiens 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajaccio 46% | Amiens 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.35 xG and Amiens 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 1.152 / defence 0.773 | Amiens attack 0.814 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.105. Ajaccio have a tight defence (rating 0.773), which is pulling Amiens's projected output down. Data: built from Ajaccio's last 25 games and Amiens's last 63.
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 53% | Draw 28% | Amiens 19%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 1.90 | Draw 3.54 | Amiens 5.20. Ajaccio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajaccio at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajaccio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Ajaccio's last 10 home games and Amiens's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ajaccio 40% (last 10 home games) | Amiens 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 26 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 53% | Draw 28% | Amiens 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Ajaccio 1.35 / Amiens 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 1.152 / def 0.773 | Amiens attack 0.814 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Amiens xG
37%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ajaccio vs Amiens FAQs
What time does Ajaccio vs Amiens kick off?
Ajaccio vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Amiens?
Ajaccio 0 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Ajaccio vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Amiens part of?
Ajaccio vs Amiens is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 26) (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 53% chance of winning, Amiens a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Ajaccio and Amiens will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Ajaccio vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ajaccio's attack at 1.15x the league average against Amiens's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Ajaccio's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ajaccio's last 25 games and Amiens's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.54
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
2.05
0.69
Amiens xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
5%
20.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.1 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ajaccio vs Amiens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Ajaccio and 0.69 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ajaccio's recent record stands at 17W 12D 34L from 63 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Amiens, meanwhile, have gone 22W 17D 24L across 63 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ajaccio on 1.00 PPG, Amiens on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ajaccio have managed 12W 6D 12L from their last 30 home games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Amiens's away record stands at 9W 7D 14L across their last 30 away games, a 1.13 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Ajaccio are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 0.97 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Blended
Amiens
Blended
Ajaccio (Home) vs Amiens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ajaccio
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Ajaccio vs Amiens Form FAQs
What form are Ajaccio and Amiens in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 17W 12D 34L in their last 63 games (1.00 PPG), while Amiens have gone 22W 17D 24L in their last 63 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Amiens away?
Ajaccio's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 1.40 PPG; Amiens away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Amiens in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 4 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ajaccio's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ajaccio
2
Draws
1
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Ajaccio vs Amiens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Amiens?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Ajaccio have won 3, Amiens have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Amiens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2025: Ajaccio 2-1 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Amiens?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajaccio 30%, Amiens 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Ajaccio) and 40% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Ajaccio have failed to score in 43% of games; Amiens in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ajaccio vs Amiens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ajaccio and Amiens matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 43% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ajaccio and Amiens matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Ajaccio's recent games and 40% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Amiens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 80% of Amiens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ajaccio's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio and Amiens finished level at 0-0 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.35 xG and Amiens 0.69 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ajaccio fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 1.15 / defence 0.77 against Amiens attack 0.81 / defence 0.95, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 53% | Draw 28% | Amiens 19%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 46%, Amiens 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Amiens's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajaccio 1.00 PPG, Amiens 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ajaccio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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