Quevilly 1-2 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Annecy travel to Stade Robert Diochon to take on Quevilly. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 October 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Quevilly have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly at Stade Robert Diochon this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Annecy's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Quevilly's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Quevilly, 1 for Annecy and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Quevilly trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Annecy trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 49% versus Annecy 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 47% | Annecy 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.25 xG and Annecy 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.870 / defence 1.201 | Annecy attack 0.934 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.105. Data: 49 Quevilly games / 49 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 36% | Draw 28% | Annecy 36%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Annecy 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Quevilly 60% | Annecy 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 36% | Draw 28% | Annecy 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Quevilly 1.25 / Annecy 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.870 / def 1.201 | Annecy attack 0.934 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Annecy xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Annecy kick off?
Quevilly vs Annecy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Annecy?
Quevilly 1 - 2 Annecy.
Where is Quevilly vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Annecy part of?
Quevilly vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 36% chance of winning, Annecy a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Quevilly and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Annecy?
Record (2 meetings): Quevilly 0W | Draws 1 | Annecy 1W.
What form are Quevilly and Annecy in?
Quevilly (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Annecy (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Quevilly's attack rating (0.87) and Annecy's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
36%
2.75
28%
3.58
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.49
1.24
Annecy xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
11%
9.51
10%
9.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.3 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.24 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Quevilly's recent record stands at 13W 18D 18L from 49 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 13W 18D 18L across 49 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Quevilly on 1.16 PPG, Annecy on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Quevilly have managed 6W 11D 7L from 24 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Annecy's away record stands at 3W 10D 11L across 24 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Quevilly come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Quevilly are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.06 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Annecy in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 13W 18D 18L in their last 49 games (1.16 PPG), while Annecy have gone 13W 18D 18L in their last 49 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Annecy away?
Quevilly's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.21 PPG; Annecy away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Annecy in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Quevilly and Annecy runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Quevilly's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Quevilly
2
Draws
2
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Annecy?
From 4 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 0, Annecy have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Annecy 0-0 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 62%, Annecy 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Quevilly) and 58% (Annecy). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Quevilly have failed to score in 29% of games; Annecy in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Quevilly's recent matches and 46% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Quevilly's matches and 58% of Annecy's.
Do Quevilly and Annecy tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Annecy in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Annecy defy the odds to beat Quevilly 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Quevilly 1-2 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.25 xG and Annecy 1.24 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.87 / defence 1.20 against Annecy attack 0.93 / defence 1.13, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 36% | Draw 28% | Annecy 36%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 47%, Annecy 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Annecy's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.16 PPG, Annecy 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.