Amiens 2-1 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rodez make the trip to Stade de la Licorne to face Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 October 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Amiens have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Amiens have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stade de la Licorne — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Rodez (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Amiens against 1.30 for Rodez. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Amiens lead 2W to 2W over the last 8 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 46% versus Rodez 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 50% | Rodez 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.03 xG and Rodez 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.750 / defence 0.979 | Rodez attack 1.033 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.155 / away 1.255. Amiens's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Amiens games / 44 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 30% | Draw 28% | Rodez 42%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Rodez 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Amiens 50% | Rodez 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Oct 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 30% | Draw 28% | Rodez 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Amiens 1.03 / Rodez 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.750 / def 0.979 | Rodez attack 1.033 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.155 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Rodez (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Rodez xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Rodez kick off?
Amiens vs Rodez kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 25 October 2025 at Stade de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Rodez?
Amiens 2 - 1 Rodez.
Where is Amiens vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Rodez part of?
Amiens vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 30% chance of winning, Rodez a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Amiens and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Rodez?
Record (8 meetings): Amiens 2W | Draws 4 | Rodez 2W.
What form are Amiens and Rodez in?
Amiens (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Rodez (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Amiens's attack at 0.75x the league average against Rodez's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (1.03x) against Amiens's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
30%
3.34
28%
3.55
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.30
1.27
Rodez xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
8%
11.87
15%
6.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Amiens and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Amiens and 1.27 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Amiens come into this having played 44 games, going 16W 7D 21L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.18 PPG from 44 outings (12W 16D 16L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Amiens against 1.18 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Amiens's home form reads 10W 4D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 1.10 points per game from 21 outings (5W 8D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Amiens are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.50 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 66%.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Rodez in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 16W 7D 21L in their last 44 games (1.25 PPG), while Rodez have gone 12W 16D 16L in their last 44 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Rodez away?
Amiens's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.62 PPG; Rodez away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Amiens
4
Draws
3
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Rodez?
From 10 meetings on record, Amiens have won 3, Rodez have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Rodez 3-2 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 48%, Rodez 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Amiens) and 62% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Amiens's recent matches and 62% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Amiens's recent games and 62% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Rodez tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rodez in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Amiens defy the odds to beat Rodez 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Rodez 2-1 at Stade de la Licorne, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.03 xG and Rodez 1.27 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Amiens beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.75 / defence 0.98 against Rodez attack 1.03 / defence 1.19, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 30% | Draw 28% | Rodez 42%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Amiens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 50%, Rodez 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Rodez's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.25 PPG, Rodez 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.