Ajaccio 1-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajaccio at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajaccio vs PAU encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees PAU travel to Stade Michel-Moretti to take on Ajaccio. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 April 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ajaccio stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stade Michel-Moretti, Ajaccio have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Ajaccio have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Ajaccio have won 2, PAU 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2024, ended 0–1 with PAU winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Ajaccio in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
PAU in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 37% versus PAU 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajaccio 40% | PAU 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.73 xG and PAU 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.950 / defence 1.087 | PAU attack 0.987 / defence 1.293. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.088. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.293 — this is suppressing Ajaccio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 68 Ajaccio games / 68 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 50% | Draw 24% | PAU 26%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | PAU 3.85. Ajaccio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ajaccio as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajaccio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Ajaccio 50% | PAU 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Michel-Moretti • Kick-off: Friday 18 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 50% | Draw 24% | PAU 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Ajaccio 1.73 / PAU 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.950 / def 1.087 | PAU attack 0.987 / def 1.293 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
1.17
PAU xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs PAU kick off?
Ajaccio vs PAU kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 18 April 2025 at Stade Michel-Moretti.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs PAU?
Ajaccio 1 - 1 PAU.
Where is Ajaccio vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel-Moretti.
What competition is Ajaccio vs PAU part of?
Ajaccio vs PAU is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 50% chance of winning, PAU a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ajaccio and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and PAU?
Record (5 meetings): Ajaccio 2W | Draws 1 | PAU 2W.
What form are Ajaccio and PAU in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. PAU (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ajaccio's attack rating (0.95) and PAU's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Ajaccio's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
50%
1.98
24%
4.21
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
2.89
1.17
PAU xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
5%
21.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.2 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Ajaccio and 1.17 for PAU, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ajaccio come into this having played 68 games, going 23W 15D 30L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.31 PPG from 68 outings (22W 23D 23L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ajaccio on 1.24 PPG, PAU on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ajaccio's home form reads 18W 8D 8L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Ajaccio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, PAU have taken 1.06 points per game from 34 outings (8W 12D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajaccio are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.37 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Current Season
PAU
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and PAU in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 23W 15D 30L in their last 68 games (1.24 PPG), while PAU have gone 22W 23D 23L in their last 68 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or PAU away?
Ajaccio's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 1.82 PPG; PAU away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, PAU in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ajaccio's record when hosting PAU specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ajaccio
2
Draws
2
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and PAU?
From 6 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 2, PAU have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Ajaccio 1-1 PAU.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajaccio 47%, PAU 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Ajaccio) and 62% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; PAU in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play PAU?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Ajaccio's games and 65% of PAU's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajaccio vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Ajaccio's recent games and 62% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and PAU tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, PAU in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajaccio and PAU share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Michel-Moretti, Regular Season - 31, as Ajaccio and PAU drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.73 xG and PAU 1.17 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against PAU attack 0.99 / defence 1.29, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 50% | Draw 24% | PAU 26%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 40%, PAU 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajaccio 1.24 PPG, PAU 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.