Toulouse 1-0 Lorient – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 44%, yet in-form Lorient provide a compelling counter-argument — this Toulouse vs Lorient fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Toulouse welcome Lorient to Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1 (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 21 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Toulouse stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Toulouse have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lorient — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Lorient have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Lorient's 1.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Toulouse's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Toulouse, 0 for Lorient and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended Toulouse 1–1 Lorient — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Lorient in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 50% versus Lorient 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 48% | Lorient 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.40 xG and Lorient 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.894 / defence 0.980 | Lorient attack 0.940 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.187. Data: built from Toulouse's last 60 games and Lorient's last 26.
Result probabilities: Toulouse 44% | Draw 27% | Lorient 29%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.27 | Draw 3.75 | Lorient 3.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lorient (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Toulouse 30% (last 10 home games) | Lorient 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Lorient | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 44% | Draw 27% | Lorient 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Toulouse 1.40 / Lorient 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.894 / def 0.980 | Lorient attack 0.940 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Lorient xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Toulouse vs Lorient FAQs
What time does Toulouse vs Lorient kick off?
Toulouse vs Lorient kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Lorient?
Toulouse 1 - 0 Lorient.
Where is Toulouse vs Lorient being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Lorient part of?
Toulouse vs Lorient is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 27) (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Lorient?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 44% chance of winning, Lorient a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Lorient?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Toulouse and Lorient will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Toulouse vs Lorient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Toulouse's attack rating (0.89) and Lorient's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lorient's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Toulouse's last 60 games and Lorient's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.75
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.49
1.09
Lorient xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
7%
13.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Toulouse vs Lorient Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Lorient?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Lorient expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.09 for Lorient, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Lorient?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Toulouse's recent record stands at 20W 16D 24L from 60 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Lorient, meanwhile, have gone 31W 15D 14L across 60 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-D-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lorient by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Toulouse heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Toulouse have managed 9W 10D 11L from their last 30 home games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lorient's away record stands at 9W 9D 12L across their last 30 away games, a 1.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lorient's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Toulouse are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Lorient are on 1.75 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Lorient
Blended
Toulouse (Home) vs Lorient (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Toulouse
Blended
Lorient
Blended
❓ Toulouse vs Lorient Form FAQs
What form are Toulouse and Lorient in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 20W 16D 24L in their last 60 games (1.27 PPG), while Lorient have gone 31W 15D 14L in their last 60 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Lorient away?
Toulouse's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.23 PPG; Lorient away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Lorient been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Lorient in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Toulouse's record when hosting Lorient specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Toulouse
4
Draws
0
Lorient
Recent Meetings
❓ Toulouse vs Lorient H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Lorient?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Toulouse have won 3, Lorient have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Lorient last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Lorient 2-2 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Lorient?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 57%, Lorient 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Toulouse) and 40% (Lorient).
On the defensive side: Lorient in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Lorient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Toulouse vs Lorient Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Toulouse and Lorient matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Toulouse's recent matches and 47% of Lorient's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Toulouse and Lorient matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Toulouse's recent games and 40% of Lorient's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Lorient matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Toulouse's recent matches and 63% of Lorient's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Toulouse edge out Lorient 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Lorient 1-0 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.40 xG and Lorient 1.09 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lorient landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.89 / defence 0.98 against Lorient attack 0.94 / defence 1.09, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 44% | Draw 27% | Lorient 29%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 48%, Lorient 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lorient's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lorient arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Toulouse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Toulouse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Lorient (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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