Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Paris Saint Germain face Toulouse.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Toulouse travel to Parc des Princes to take on Paris Saint Germain. The game is scheduled for Friday 3 April 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Paris Saint Germain — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Parc des Princes, Paris Saint Germain have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Princes. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Toulouse have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Paris Saint Germain have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Paris Saint Germain hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 1 for Toulouse, with 1 draws in between.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 6–3 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Paris Saint Germain and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Paris Saint Germain in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris Saint Germain 62% versus Toulouse 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 67% | Toulouse 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 2.15 xG and Toulouse 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.486 / defence 0.822 | Toulouse attack 1.099 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.217. Paris Saint Germain carry an above-average attack strength of 1.486 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 60 Paris Saint Germain games / 61 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 61% | Draw 20% | Toulouse 19%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | Toulouse 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Paris Saint Germain 30% | Toulouse 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Friday 3 Apr 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 61% | Draw 20% | Toulouse 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG Paris Saint Germain 2.15 / Toulouse 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.486 / def 0.822 | Toulouse attack 1.099 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Toulouse xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 3 April 2026 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse?
Paris Saint Germain 3 - 1 Toulouse.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 61% chance of winning, Toulouse a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse?
Record (7 meetings): Paris Saint Germain 5W | Draws 1 | Toulouse 1W.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse in?
Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Toulouse (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Paris Saint Germain's attacking strength (1.49x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Paris Saint Germain's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
61%
1.63
20%
4.97
19%
5.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
3.25
1.10
Toulouse xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
5.40
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
12%
8.60
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
2%
46.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.10 for Toulouse, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Paris Saint Germain have picked up 2.40 PPG on a 45W 9D 6L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Toulouse's form line: 21W 15D 24L from 60 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Paris Saint Germain are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Toulouse.
Venue Form
On home soil, Paris Saint Germain have posted 2.59 PPG from 29 outings (24W 3D 2L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 11W 5D 13L from 29 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.37 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 45W 9D 6L in their last 60 games (2.40 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 21W 15D 24L in their last 60 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Toulouse away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.59 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Toulouse in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Paris Saint Germain have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2022, when Paris Saint Germain won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Paris Saint Germain's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Paris Saint Germain
1
Draws
1
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse?
From 8 meetings on record, Paris Saint Germain have won 6, Toulouse have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 55%, Toulouse 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Paris Saint Germain and 52% for Toulouse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Toulouse in 31%; Toulouse in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris Saint Germain play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Paris Saint Germain's recent matches and 41% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Paris Saint Germain's matches and 52% of Toulouse's.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse tend to score early?
Paris Saint Germain have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris Saint Germain cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Toulouse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Toulouse 3-1 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 2.15 xG and Toulouse 1.10 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.49 / defence 0.82 against Toulouse attack 1.10 / defence 1.01, drawn from 60/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 61% | Draw 20% | Toulouse 19%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 67%, Toulouse 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Toulouse's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win. Toulouse (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.