Toulouse 3-1 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lille (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Toulouse face Lille.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Toulouse host Lille at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Toulouse — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse at Stadium de Toulouse this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lille have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Lille's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Toulouse's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Toulouse, 2 for Lille and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Toulouse in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Lille in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 57% versus Lille 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 55% | Lille 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 0.95 xG and Lille 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.800 / defence 1.131 | Lille attack 0.854 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.136. Data: 60 Toulouse games / 60 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 29% | Draw 34% | Lille 37%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 3.45 | Draw 2.94 | Lille 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Toulouse 70% | Lille 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 29% | Draw 34% | Lille 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Toulouse 0.95 / Lille 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.800 / def 1.131 | Lille attack 0.854 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Lille (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Lille xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Lille kick off?
Toulouse vs Lille kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Lille?
Toulouse 3 - 1 Lille.
Where is Toulouse vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Lille part of?
Toulouse vs Lille is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 29% chance of winning, Lille a 37% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Toulouse and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Lille?
Record (3 meetings): Toulouse 0W | Draws 1 | Lille 2W.
What form are Toulouse and Lille in?
Toulouse (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Lille (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 0.80x the league average against Lille's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
29%
3.42
34%
2.94
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.05
1.10
Lille xG
3.42
29%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
39%
2.60
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
14%
7.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 14.1 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.10 for Lille, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Toulouse come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 17D 25L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.75 PPG from 60 outings (29W 18D 13L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Toulouse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Toulouse's home form reads 7W 11D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.21 points per game from 29 outings (8W 11D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lille's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.62 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Lille in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Lille in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Lille have gone 29W 18D 13L in their last 60 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Lille away?
Lille's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.10 PPG; Lille away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Lille in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lille go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Apr 2026, when Lille won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Toulouse's record when hosting Lille specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Toulouse
1
Draws
6
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Lille?
From 8 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 1, Lille have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Toulouse 0-4 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 62%, Lille 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Toulouse) and 38% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Lille in 34%; Toulouse have failed to score in 28% of games; Lille in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Lille?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Toulouse's games and 52% of Lille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Toulouse's recent games and 38% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Lille tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Lille in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lille.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Lille 3-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 0.95 xG and Lille 1.10 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Toulouse beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.80 / defence 1.13 against Lille attack 0.85 / defence 0.88, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 29% | Draw 34% | Lille 37%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 55%, Lille 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Lille's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Toulouse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm. Lille (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.