Nice 0-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Nice at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nice vs Clermont Foot encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Clermont Foot travel to Allianz Riviera to take on Nice in Ligue 1 (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Nice stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Nice's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Nice are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Clermont Foot have recorded 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Clermont Foot's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, Nice have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Nice have won 2, Clermont Foot 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2023, ended Nice 1–0 Clermont Foot — a Nice win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Nice in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.

Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 43% versus Clermont Foot 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nice 32% | Clermont Foot 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.80 xG and Clermont Foot 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 1.019 / defence 0.803 | Clermont Foot attack 0.927 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.136. Clermont Foot's defence rating of 1.301 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Nice's projected output up. Data: built from Nice's last 60 games and Clermont Foot's last 60.

Result probabilities: Nice 58% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 16%. Fair-value odds: Nice 1.71 | Draw 3.87 | Clermont Foot 6.34. The model has a clear lean to Nice (58%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nice 20% (last 10 home games) | Clermont Foot 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights