Reims 0-2 Lens – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lens at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reims vs Lens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Reims welcome Lens to Stade Auguste-Delaune. Kick-off is set for Friday 29 November 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Reims — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stade Auguste-Delaune this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lens stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lens have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Reims have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Lens have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Reims.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Lens have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Reims trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Lens trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 67% versus Lens 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 59% | Lens 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.10 xG and Lens 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.978 / defence 1.017 | Lens attack 0.935 / defence 0.759. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.376. Lens's defence strength of 0.759 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Reims games / 46 Lens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 31% | Draw 27% | Lens 41%. Fair-value odds: Reims 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Lens 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Lens lead the H2H ledger, but Reims carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Lens as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Reims (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Reims 70% | Lens 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Lens | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Friday 29 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 31% | Draw 27% | Lens 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Reims 1.10 / Lens 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.978 / def 1.017 | Lens attack 0.935 / def 0.759 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Lens (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Lens xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Lens kick off?
Reims vs Lens kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 29 November 2024 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Lens?
Reims 0 - 2 Lens.
Where is Reims vs Lens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Lens part of?
Reims vs Lens is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Lens?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 31% chance of winning, Lens a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Lens?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Reims and Lens will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Lens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Lens?
Record (6 meetings): Reims 0W | Draws 2 | Lens 4W.
What form are Reims and Lens in?
Reims (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Lens (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Reims vs Lens?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Reims's attack at 0.98x the league average against Lens's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lens's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lens Win
31%
3.20
27%
3.65
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Reims xG
Total xG
2.41
1.31
Lens xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
8%
11.83
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Lens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Reims and Lens expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Reims and 1.31 for Lens, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Lens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Reims have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 18W 11D 17L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lens's form line: 18W 14D 14L from 46 games, 1.48 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Lens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.41 PPG, Lens on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Reims have posted 1.52 PPG from 23 outings (10W 5D 8L).
On the road, Lens have gone 7W 8D 8L from 23 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Reims are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Lens are on 1.26 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reims have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lens in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Lens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Lens in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 18W 11D 17L in their last 46 games (1.41 PPG), while Lens have gone 18W 14D 14L in their last 46 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Lens away?
Reims's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.52 PPG; Lens away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Reims or Lens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Lens in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Reims's record when hosting Lens specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Reims
2
Draws
5
Lens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Lens?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 1, Lens have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Lens last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2025, when Lens 0-2 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Lens?
Lens have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Lens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 56%, Lens 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Reims) and 39% (Lens).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Lens in 44%; Lens in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Lens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Lens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Reims's recent matches and 44% of Lens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Lens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Reims's recent games and 39% of Lens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Lens tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Lens in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lens cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Reims.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lens beat Reims 0-2 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.10 xG and Lens 1.31 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Reims fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.98 / defence 1.02 against Lens attack 0.94 / defence 0.76, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 31% | Draw 27% | Lens 41%, with Lens to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 59%, Lens 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Lens's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.41 PPG, Lens 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lens win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lens (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.