Paris Saint Germain 1-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Paris Saint Germain face Clermont Foot.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Paris Saint Germain and Clermont Foot meet at Parc des Princes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 April 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Paris Saint Germain have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris Saint Germain's home record at Parc des Princes: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Clermont Foot (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Clermont Foot have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Paris Saint Germain's favour (2.20 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Paris Saint Germain, 1 for Clermont Foot and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Paris Saint Germain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Clermont Foot goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris Saint Germain 58% versus Clermont Foot 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 66% | Clermont Foot 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 2.17 xG and Clermont Foot 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.445 / defence 1.012 | Clermont Foot attack 0.720 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.312. Paris Saint Germain carry an above-average attack strength of 1.445 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 65 Paris Saint Germain games / 65 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 64% | Draw 21% | Clermont Foot 15%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Clermont Foot 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Paris Saint Germain 70% | Clermont Foot 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 64% | Draw 21% | Clermont Foot 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 55% | xG Paris Saint Germain 2.17 / Clermont Foot 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.445 / def 1.012 | Clermont Foot attack 0.720 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Clermont Foot xG
55%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot?
Paris Saint Germain 1 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 64% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Clermont Foot?
Record (5 meetings): Paris Saint Germain 3W | Draws 1 | Clermont Foot 1W.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Clermont Foot in?
Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Paris Saint Germain's attack at 1.45x the league average against Clermont Foot's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.72x) against Paris Saint Germain's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
64%
1.55
21%
4.81
15%
6.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
3.13
0.95
Clermont Foot xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
6.78
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
11%
8.78
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
2%
59.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 0.95 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Paris Saint Germain's recent record stands at 45W 12D 8L from 65 games, a 2.26 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 28L across 65 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris Saint Germain by 1.04 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Clermont Foot heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Paris Saint Germain have managed 21W 6D 5L from 32 games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 10W 9D 13L across 32 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.35 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 0.98 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 45W 12D 8L in their last 65 games (2.26 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 21W 16D 28L in their last 65 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Clermont Foot away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.16 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won 1-6 on 9 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris Saint Germain have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Paris Saint Germain
2
Draws
1
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Paris Saint Germain have won 3, Clermont Foot have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Paris Saint Germain 1-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Clermont Foot?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 66%, Clermont Foot 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Paris Saint Germain and 53% for Clermont Foot. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris Saint Germain play Clermont Foot?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Paris Saint Germain's games and 59% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Paris Saint Germain's matches and 53% of Clermont Foot's.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Paris Saint Germain have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris Saint Germain and Clermont Foot share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 28, as Paris Saint Germain and Clermont Foot drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 2.17 xG and Clermont Foot 0.95 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.45 / defence 1.01 against Clermont Foot attack 0.72 / defence 1.16, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 64% | Draw 21% | Clermont Foot 15%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 66%, Clermont Foot 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.