Clermont Foot 1-1 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Montpellier at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Montpellier encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Clermont Foot welcome Montpellier to Stade Gabriel-Montpied in Ligue 1 (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 14 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Clermont Foot have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Clermont Foot have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Montpellier — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Montpellier's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Montpellier are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Clermont Foot have won 1, Montpellier 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2023, ended Clermont Foot 1–1 Montpellier — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Clermont Foot trading profile (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Montpellier trading profile (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 53% versus Montpellier 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 48% | Montpellier 59%). Note also that Montpellier surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Clermont Foot recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.12 xG and Montpellier 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.781 / defence 1.352 | Montpellier attack 1.016 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.295. Clermont Foot's attack rating of 0.781 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Clermont Foot's defence rating of 1.352 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Montpellier's projected output up. Data: built from Clermont Foot's last 66 games and Montpellier's last 66.
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 23% | Draw 25% | Montpellier 52%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 4.33 | Draw 3.99 | Montpellier 1.93. Montpellier hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Montpellier as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Montpellier offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Clermont Foot 50% (last 10 home games) | Montpellier 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 29 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 23% | Draw 25% | Montpellier 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Clermont Foot 1.12 / Montpellier 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.781 / def 1.352 | Montpellier attack 1.016 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Montpellier xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Clermont Foot vs Montpellier FAQs
What time does Clermont Foot vs Montpellier kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Montpellier kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Montpellier?
Clermont Foot 1 - 1 Montpellier.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Montpellier part of?
Clermont Foot vs Montpellier is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 29) (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 23% chance of winning, Montpellier a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Clermont Foot and Montpellier will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Clermont Foot vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.78) and Montpellier's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Montpellier's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Clermont Foot's last 66 games and Montpellier's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
23%
4.33
25%
3.99
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.91
1.78
Montpellier xG
4.33
23%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
17%
5.93
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
4%
25.65
17%
5.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.7 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Clermont Foot vs Montpellier Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.78 for Montpellier, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Clermont Foot's recent record stands at 21W 17D 28L from 66 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five.
Montpellier, meanwhile, have gone 23W 14D 29L across 66 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Clermont Foot on 1.21 PPG, Montpellier on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Clermont Foot have managed 11W 7D 14L from their last 32 home games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Montpellier's away record stands at 13W 3D 16L across their last 32 away games, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 1.52 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Current Season
Montpellier
Current Season
Clermont Foot (Home) vs Montpellier (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Clermont Foot
Current Season
Montpellier
Current Season
❓ Clermont Foot vs Montpellier Form FAQs
What form are Clermont Foot and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 21W 17D 28L in their last 66 games (1.21 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 23W 14D 29L in their last 66 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Montpellier away?
Montpellier's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.25 PPG; Montpellier away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Montpellier been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Montpellier in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 1, Ligue 2. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Montpellier specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Clermont Foot
4
Draws
2
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Clermont Foot vs Montpellier H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Montpellier?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Clermont Foot have won 2, Montpellier have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Montpellier last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Montpellier 1-2 Clermont Foot.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 47%, Montpellier 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Clermont Foot) and 56% (Montpellier).
On the defensive side: Montpellier in 31%; Clermont Foot have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Clermont Foot vs Montpellier Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Clermont Foot and Montpellier matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 44% of Montpellier's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Clermont Foot and Montpellier matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 56% of Montpellier's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Montpellier matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 81% of Montpellier's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Clermont Foot and Montpellier share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 29, as Clermont Foot and Montpellier drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.12 xG and Montpellier 1.78 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.78 / defence 1.35 against Montpellier attack 1.02 / defence 1.11, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 23% | Draw 25% | Montpellier 52%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 48%, Montpellier 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Montpellier's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.21 PPG, Montpellier 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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