Auxerre 2-1 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reims at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Reims encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Reims travel to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to take on Auxerre. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 October 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Auxerre — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Auxerre have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Reims have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reims's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Reims — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Auxerre, 1 for Reims and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Auxerre trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Reims trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Auxerre 56% and Reims 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 56% | Reims 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.55 xG and Reims 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.961 / defence 1.067 | Reims attack 1.178 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.346. Data: 7 Auxerre games / 41 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 32% | Draw 29% | Reims 38%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Reims 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Reims as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 40% | Reims 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 32% | Draw 29% | Reims 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 67% | xG Auxerre 1.55 / Reims 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.961 / def 1.067 | Reims attack 1.178 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Reims (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Reims xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Reims kick off?
Auxerre vs Reims kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Reims?
Auxerre 2 - 1 Reims.
Where is Auxerre vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Reims part of?
Auxerre vs Reims is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 32% chance of winning, Reims a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Auxerre and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Reims?
Record (2 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 1 | Reims 1W.
What form are Auxerre and Reims in?
Auxerre (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Reims (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Auxerre vs Reims?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 0.96x the league average against Reims's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
32%
3.10
29%
3.40
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Auxerre xG
Total xG
3.24
1.69
Reims xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
18%
5.43
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
6%
16.86
8%
12.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.69 for Reims, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 22W 9D 10L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Reims's form line: 17W 10D 14L from 41 games, 1.49 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Reims, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.83 PPG, Reims on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 2.30 PPG from 20 outings (14W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Auxerre are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Reims have gone 7W 6D 7L from 20 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.37 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reims in 68%.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Reims
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Reims in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 22W 9D 10L in their last 41 games (1.83 PPG), while Reims have gone 17W 10D 14L in their last 41 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Reims away?
Auxerre's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 2.30 PPG; Reims away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Reims in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Auxerre and Reims runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Auxerre have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Auxerre's record when hosting Reims specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Auxerre
1
Draws
1
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Reims?
From 4 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Reims have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Reims 0-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Reims?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Auxerre at 50%, Reims at 85%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Auxerre and 70% for Reims. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Reims?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Auxerre's games and 85% of Reims's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Auxerre vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Auxerre's matches and 70% of Reims's.
Do Auxerre and Reims tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Reims in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Auxerre defy the odds to beat Reims 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Reims 2-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.55 xG and Reims 1.69 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.96 / defence 1.07 against Reims attack 1.18 / defence 1.00, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 32% | Draw 29% | Reims 38%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 56%, Reims 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Reims's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.83 PPG, Reims 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.