Ilves 2-1 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ilves at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ilves vs Mariehamn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mariehamn make the trip to Tammelan Stadion to face Ilves in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 August 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ilves have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ilves have posted 7W 2D 1L at Tammelan Stadion — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mariehamn's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Ilves. A 1.00 PPG lead over Mariehamn (2.00 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ilves have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Mariehamn in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Ilves, 2 for Mariehamn and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 2–3 with Mariehamn winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Mariehamn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 46% versus Mariehamn 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 58% | Mariehamn 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 2.46 xG and Mariehamn 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.096 / defence 0.868 | Mariehamn attack 0.792 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.621. Mariehamn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing Ilves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Ilves games / 43 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 66% | Draw 19% | Mariehamn 15%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | Mariehamn 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Ilves (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.46 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ilves are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.57 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 70% | Mariehamn 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Tammelan Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Aug 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 66% | Draw 19% | Mariehamn 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 62% | xG Ilves 2.46 / Mariehamn 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.096 / def 0.868 | Mariehamn attack 0.792 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.621 • Poisson stance: Ilves (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Mariehamn xG
62%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs Mariehamn kick off?
Ilves vs Mariehamn kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 31 August 2025 at Tammelan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Ilves 2 - 1 Mariehamn.
Where is Ilves vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Tammelan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs Mariehamn part of?
Ilves vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 66% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Ilves and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Mariehamn?
Record (7 meetings): Ilves 3W | Draws 2 | Mariehamn 2W.
What form are Ilves and Mariehamn in?
Ilves (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Mariehamn (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ilves's attack at 1.10x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.79x) against Ilves's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
66%
1.51
19%
5.31
15%
6.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
Ilves xG
Total xG
3.57
1.11
Mariehamn xG
1.51
66%
Home win
5.31
19%
Draw
6.69
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
9%
11.66
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
1%
78.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Ilves and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Ilves and 1.11 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ilves's recent record stands at 29W 9D 10L from 48 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 25L across 48 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ilves by 1.02 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mariehamn heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ilves have managed 17W 4D 3L from 24 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mariehamn's away record stands at 5W 5D 14L across 24 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ilves are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.06 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Defensively: Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 29W 9D 10L in their last 48 games (2.00 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 12W 11D 25L in their last 48 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or Mariehamn away?
Ilves's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 2.29 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Ilves or Mariehamn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Mariehamn in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ilves
3
Draws
2
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 5, Mariehamn have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Ilves 2-0 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and Mariehamn?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 54%, Mariehamn 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Ilves and 58% for Mariehamn. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Mariehamn in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play Mariehamn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Ilves's games and 58% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ilves vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Ilves's matches and 58% of Mariehamn's.
Do Ilves and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ilves edge out Mariehamn 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat Mariehamn 2-1 at Tammelan Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 2.46 xG and Mariehamn 1.11 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.10 / defence 0.87 against Mariehamn attack 0.79 / defence 1.34, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 66% | Draw 19% | Mariehamn 15%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 58%, Mariehamn 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Mariehamn's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.