Ilves 3-0 KuPS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates KuPS at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ilves vs KuPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ilves and KuPS meet at Tammelan Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 21 May 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ilves's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Tammelan Stadion this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tammelan Stadion.
KuPS have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.50 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Ilves, 3 for KuPS and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with Ilves winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ilves — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
KuPS — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 48% versus KuPS 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 48% | KuPS 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.83 xG and KuPS 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.370 / defence 1.040 | KuPS attack 1.166 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.611. Ilves carry an above-average attack strength of 1.370 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 29 Ilves games / 30 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 37% | Draw 21% | KuPS 42%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 2.70 | Draw 4.76 | KuPS 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.95) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, KuPS are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.78 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates are neutral: Ilves 40% | KuPS 60%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Tammelan Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 May 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 37% | Draw 21% | KuPS 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG Ilves 1.83 / KuPS 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.370 / def 1.040 | KuPS attack 1.166 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.611 • Poisson stance: KuPS (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.95
KuPS xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs KuPS kick off?
Ilves vs KuPS kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 21 May 2025 at Tammelan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs KuPS?
Ilves 3 - 0 KuPS.
Where is Ilves vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Tammelan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs KuPS part of?
Ilves vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 37% chance of winning, KuPS a 42% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Ilves and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and KuPS?
Record (4 meetings): Ilves 1W | Draws 0 | KuPS 3W.
What form are Ilves and KuPS in?
Ilves (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. KuPS (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ilves's attack rating (1.37) and KuPS's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (1.17x) against Ilves's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.95.
These ratings are built from 29/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.9%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
37%
2.71
21%
4.69
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Ilves xG
Total xG
3.78
1.95
KuPS xG
2.71
37%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.58
Clean Sheet
14%
7.06
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
5%
19.15
7%
14.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Ilves and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Ilves and 1.95 for KuPS, a combined total of 3.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Ilves have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 24W 15D 15L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS's form line: 33W 10D 11L from 54 games, 2.02 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ilves.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ilves have posted 1.77 PPG from 26 outings (13W 7D 6L).
On the road, KuPS have gone 13W 9D 4L from 26 away games — 1.85 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Ilves are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.61 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; KuPS in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and KuPS in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 24W 15D 15L in their last 54 games (1.61 PPG), while KuPS have gone 33W 10D 11L in their last 54 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 1.77 PPG; KuPS away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Ilves or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, KuPS in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
KuPS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 0-3 on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ilves
1
Draws
5
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 4, KuPS have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 23 June 2026, when KuPS 4-3 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 54%, KuPS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Ilves) and 42% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; KuPS in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play KuPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Ilves's recent matches and 50% of KuPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ilves vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Ilves's recent games and 42% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ilves and KuPS tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, KuPS in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ilves run riot with a 3-0 hammering of KuPS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat KuPS 3-0 at Tammelan Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.83 xG and KuPS 1.95 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ilves beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. KuPS landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.37 / defence 1.04 against KuPS attack 1.17 / defence 0.83, drawn from 29/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 37% | Draw 21% | KuPS 42%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Ilves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 48%, KuPS 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.61. Form was overturned, with Ilves winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. KuPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.