Haka 1-2 Kooteepee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haka at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haka vs Kooteepee encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kooteepee make the trip to Tehtaan kenttä to face Haka in Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 October 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Haka have collected 0.10 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 0W 1D 9L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka's home record at Tehtaan kenttä: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Haka are significantly better at Tehtaan kenttä than their overall form suggests.
Kooteepee (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kooteepee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kooteepee have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Kooteepee are 0.60 PPG clear of Haka in recent Veikkausliiga fixtures (0.70 vs 0.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Haka have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Kooteepee in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Haka lead 4W to 2W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2025, ended 2–3 with Kooteepee winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Haka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Kooteepee goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 92% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haka 69% and Kooteepee 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Haka 62% | Kooteepee 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 2.11 xG and Kooteepee 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 0.849 / defence 1.163 | Kooteepee attack 0.766 / defence 1.488. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.653. Kooteepee bring a strong defensive rating of 1.488 — this is suppressing Haka's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Haka games / 22 Kooteepee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 52% | Draw 22% | Kooteepee 26%. Fair-value odds: Haka 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Kooteepee 3.85. Haka hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.11 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Haka dominate the H2H record, yet Kooteepee are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haka at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kooteepee (0.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haka if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.59 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Haka 60% | Kooteepee 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs Kooteepee | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 52% | Draw 22% | Kooteepee 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Haka 2.11 / Kooteepee 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 0.849 / def 1.163 | Kooteepee attack 0.766 / def 1.488 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.653 • Poisson stance: Haka (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Kooteepee xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs Kooteepee kick off?
Haka vs Kooteepee kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs Kooteepee?
Haka 1 - 2 Kooteepee.
Where is Haka vs Kooteepee being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs Kooteepee part of?
Haka vs Kooteepee is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs Kooteepee?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 52% chance of winning, Kooteepee a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs Kooteepee?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Haka and Kooteepee will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs Kooteepee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Kooteepee?
Record (8 meetings): Haka 4W | Draws 2 | Kooteepee 2W.
What form are Haka and Kooteepee in?
Haka (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Kooteepee (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Haka's attack rating (0.85) and Kooteepee's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kooteepee's attack (0.77x) against Haka's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 44/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
52%
1.94
22%
4.45
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Haka xG
Total xG
3.59
1.47
Kooteepee xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
12%
8.28
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
3%
31.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs Kooteepee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Haka and Kooteepee expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Haka and 1.47 for Kooteepee, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs Kooteepee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Haka come into this having played 26 games, going 4W 5D 17L for 0.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kooteepee sit at 0.69 PPG from 26 outings (4W 6D 16L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Kooteepee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.65 PPG for Haka against 0.69 for Kooteepee. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Haka's home form reads 3W 0D 9L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Kooteepee have taken 0.50 points per game from 12 outings (2W 0D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Haka are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Kooteepee are on 1.12 scored and 2.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Kooteepee in 62%.
Last 26 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
Kooteepee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and Kooteepee in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 4W 5D 17L in their last 26 games (0.65 PPG), while Kooteepee have gone 4W 6D 16L in their last 26 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or Kooteepee away?
Haka's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 0.75 PPG; Kooteepee away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kooteepee have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kooteepee won 0-3 on 14 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haka have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kooteepee — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Haka
2
Draws
3
Kooteepee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Kooteepee?
From 9 meetings on record, Haka have won 4, Kooteepee have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haka and Kooteepee last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Haka 1-2 Kooteepee.
Who has won more matches between Haka and Kooteepee?
Haka have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haka 58%, Kooteepee 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Haka and 92% for Kooteepee. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haka have failed to score in 42% of games; Kooteepee in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / Kooteepee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play Kooteepee?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Haka's games and 58% of Kooteepee's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haka vs Kooteepee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Haka's matches and 92% of Kooteepee's.
Do Haka and Kooteepee tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Kooteepee in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kooteepee defy the odds to beat Haka 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kooteepee beat Haka 1-2 at Tehtaan kenttä, Relegation Round - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 2.11 xG and Kooteepee 1.47 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Haka fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 0.85 / defence 1.16 against Kooteepee attack 0.77 / defence 1.49, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 52% | Draw 22% | Kooteepee 26%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual Kooteepee win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 62%, Kooteepee 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Kooteepee's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haka 0.65 PPG, Kooteepee 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kooteepee win broke the near-deadlock. Kooteepee (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.