West Ham 0-3 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tottenham at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Ham vs Tottenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Tottenham travel to London Stadium to take on West Ham. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 September 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, West Ham have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. West Ham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, West Ham have posted 2W 3D 5L at London Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Tottenham — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Tottenham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Tottenham have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: West Ham 1.10 PPG, Tottenham 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, West Ham have won 2, Tottenham 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
West Ham trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Tottenham trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 61% versus Tottenham 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 54% | Tottenham 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.22 xG and Tottenham 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 0.932 / defence 1.431 | Tottenham attack 1.081 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.159. Data: 41 West Ham games / 41 Tottenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Ham 26% | Draw 23% | Tottenham 51%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | Tottenham 1.96. Tottenham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Tottenham as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tottenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: West Ham 60% | Tottenham 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 26% | Draw 23% | Tottenham 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG West Ham 1.22 / Tottenham 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 0.932 / def 1.431 | Tottenham attack 1.081 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Tottenham xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Ham vs Tottenham kick off?
West Ham vs Tottenham kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Tottenham?
West Ham 0 - 3 Tottenham.
Where is West Ham vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Tottenham part of?
West Ham vs Tottenham is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 26% chance of winning, Tottenham a 51% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both West Ham and Tottenham will score (BTTS).
Will West Ham vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Tottenham?
Record (8 meetings): West Ham 2W | Draws 3 | Tottenham 3W.
What form are West Ham and Tottenham in?
West Ham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Tottenham (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from West Ham's attack rating (0.93) and Tottenham's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tottenham's attack versus West Ham's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
26%
3.84
23%
4.31
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
West Ham xG
Total xG
3.02
1.79
Tottenham xG
3.84
26%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
17%
6.01
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
4%
23.07
15%
6.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are West Ham and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for West Ham and 1.79 for Tottenham, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, West Ham have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 12W 10D 19L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for West Ham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Tottenham's form line: 13W 5D 23L from 41 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Tottenham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Ham on 1.12 PPG, Tottenham on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, West Ham have posted 1.00 PPG from 20 outings (5W 5D 10L).
On the road, Tottenham have gone 6W 2D 12L from 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
West Ham are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.68 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Early Season
Tottenham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Ham and Tottenham in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 12W 10D 19L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 13W 5D 23L in their last 41 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Tottenham away?
West Ham's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.00 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2024, when Tottenham won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
West Ham's record when hosting Tottenham specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
West Ham
3
Draws
4
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Tottenham?
From 10 meetings on record, West Ham have won 3, Tottenham have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Tottenham last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Tottenham 1-2 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Tottenham?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
West Ham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Tottenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 65%, Tottenham 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (West Ham) and 50% (Tottenham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: West Ham have failed to score in 30% of games; Tottenham in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Ham play Tottenham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of West Ham's games and 45% of Tottenham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is West Ham vs Tottenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of West Ham's matches and 50% of Tottenham's.
Do West Ham and Tottenham tend to score early?
West Ham have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Tottenham in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Tottenham run riot with a 0-3 hammering of West Ham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tottenham beat West Ham 0-3 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.22 xG and Tottenham 1.79 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. West Ham fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Tottenham outscored their 1.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.93 / defence 1.43 against Tottenham attack 1.08 / defence 0.95, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 26% | Draw 23% | Tottenham 51%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 54%, Tottenham 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Tottenham's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Ham 1.12 PPG, Tottenham 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tottenham win broke the near-deadlock. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tottenham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.