Sunderland vs Everton – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Everton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 26 as Sunderland welcome Everton to Stadium of Light. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Sunderland have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sunderland have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sunderland's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Stadium of Light this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Everton — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Everton's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Sunderland) versus 1.10 (Everton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sunderland, 0 for Everton and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 3–1 with Sunderland winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sunderland trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 41% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Everton trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 47% versus Everton 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 42% | Everton 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 0.98 xG and Everton 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.704 / defence 1.015 | Everton attack 0.942 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.269. Sunderland's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Sunderland games / 45 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 29% | Draw 30% | Everton 41%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Everton 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 20% | Everton 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 29% | Draw 30% | Everton 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Sunderland 0.98 / Everton 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.704 / def 1.015 | Everton attack 0.942 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Everton (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Everton xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Everton kick off?
Sunderland vs Everton is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Stadium of Light.
Where is Sunderland vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Everton part of?
Sunderland vs Everton is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 29% chance of winning, Everton a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sunderland and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Everton?
Record (2 meetings): Sunderland 1W | Draws 1 | Everton 0W.
What form are Sunderland and Everton in?
Sunderland (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Everton (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sunderland's attack at 0.70x the league average against Everton's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
29%
3.42
30%
3.35
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.20
1.21
Everton xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
9%
11.50
15%
6.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 13.5 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.3 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.21 for Everton, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sunderland's recent record stands at 15W 13D 17L from 45 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sunderland, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Everton, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 16L across 45 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-D-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sunderland on 1.29 PPG, Everton on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sunderland have managed 10W 6D 6L from 22 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Everton's away record stands at 7W 8D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sunderland are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.22 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Early Season
Everton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Everton in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 15W 13D 17L in their last 45 games (1.29 PPG), while Everton have gone 15W 14D 16L in their last 45 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Everton away?
Sunderland's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.64 PPG; Everton away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Everton in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sunderland
1
Draws
0
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Everton?
From 2 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 1, Everton have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Everton 1-3 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Everton?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sunderland see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches.
Everton see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 41%, Everton 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Sunderland) and 36% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Sunderland have failed to score in 32% of games; Everton in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Sunderland's recent matches and 50% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Sunderland's recent games and 36% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.