Fulham 2-1 Brentford – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Fulham at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fulham face Brentford.

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Fixture Analysis

Fulham welcome Brentford to Craven Cottage in Premier League (matchday 10). Kick-off is Monday 4 November 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Fulham stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Fulham's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Brentford have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Brentford's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fulham 1.50 PPG, Brentford 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Fulham's games and 80% of Brentford's (from Fulham's last 10 home games and Brentford's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Fulham have won 1, Brentford 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 4 May 2024, ended Fulham 0–0 Brentford — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Fulham trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Brentford trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fulham 53% and Brentford 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 60% | Brentford 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.69 xG and Brentford 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.965 / defence 1.085 | Brentford attack 0.904 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.580 / away 1.364. Data: built from Fulham's last 47 games and Brentford's last 47.

Result probabilities: Fulham 45% | Draw 26% | Brentford 30%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.24 | Draw 3.88 | Brentford 3.39. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.69 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Fulham's last 10 home games and Brentford's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fulham 60% (last 10 home games) | Brentford 80% (last 10 away games).

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