Everton 1-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fulham at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Fulham travel to Goodison Park to take on Everton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton at Goodison Park this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Goodison Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Everton are significantly better at Goodison Park than their overall form suggests.
Fulham — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Everton) versus 1.40 (Fulham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Everton, 2 for Fulham and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Everton in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Fulham in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 41% versus Fulham 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 46% | Fulham 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.30 xG and Fulham 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.859 / defence 0.996 | Fulham attack 0.922 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.461. Data: 46 Everton games / 46 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 34% | Draw 29% | Fulham 36%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Fulham 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Everton 30% | Fulham 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 34% | Draw 29% | Fulham 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Everton 1.30 / Fulham 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.859 / def 0.996 | Fulham attack 0.922 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Fulham (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Fulham xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Fulham kick off?
Everton vs Fulham kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Fulham?
Everton 1 - 1 Fulham.
Where is Everton vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Fulham part of?
Everton vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 34% chance of winning, Fulham a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Everton and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Fulham?
Record (4 meetings): Everton 0W | Draws 2 | Fulham 2W.
What form are Everton and Fulham in?
Everton (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Fulham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Everton vs Fulham?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Everton's attack rating (0.86) and Fulham's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
34%
2.90
29%
3.42
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Everton xG
Total xG
2.64
1.34
Fulham xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
9%
11.08
10%
10.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Everton and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Everton and 1.34 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Everton come into this having played 46 games, going 15W 11D 20L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.26 PPG from 46 outings (16W 10D 20L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton on 1.22 PPG, Fulham on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Everton's home form reads 9W 5D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 0.96 points per game from 23 outings (5W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.43 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Fulham in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 15W 11D 20L in their last 46 games (1.22 PPG), while Fulham have gone 16W 10D 20L in their last 46 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Fulham away?
Everton's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.39 PPG; Fulham away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Everton or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Fulham in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Everton have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Everton's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Everton
3
Draws
2
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Everton have won 3, Fulham have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fulham 1-2 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Fulham?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 35%, Fulham 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Everton) and 56% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 30% of games; Fulham in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Everton's recent matches and 56% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Everton's recent games and 56% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Everton and Fulham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 9, as Everton and Fulham drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.30 xG and Fulham 1.34 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.86 / defence 1.00 against Fulham attack 0.92 / defence 0.99, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 34% | Draw 29% | Fulham 36%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 46%, Fulham 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Fulham's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.22 PPG, Fulham 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fulham (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.