Everton 2-2 Liverpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Liverpool (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Everton face Liverpool.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Everton welcome Liverpool to Goodison Park. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 12 February 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton's home record at Goodison Park: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Goodison Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Liverpool — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Liverpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Liverpool's away record: 7W 3D 0L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Liverpool's 2.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Everton's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Liverpool, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Everton.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with Everton winning.
It is worth noting that Liverpool have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Everton in-play and half-time data (61 games, 31 at home): BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Liverpool in-play and half-time data (61 games, 31 at away): BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 36% versus Liverpool 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 41% | Liverpool 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.13 xG and Liverpool 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.969 / defence 0.740 | Liverpool attack 1.473 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.547. Liverpool's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Liverpool have an above-average attack strength of 1.473 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Everton's defence rating of 0.740 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Everton games / 61 Liverpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 24% | Draw 27% | Liverpool 49%. Fair-value odds: Everton 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Liverpool 2.04. Liverpool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Liverpool offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Everton 30% | Liverpool 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Liverpool | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 Feb 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 24% | Draw 27% | Liverpool 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Everton 1.13 / Liverpool 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.969 / def 0.740 | Liverpool attack 1.473 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.547 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Liverpool xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Liverpool kick off?
Everton vs Liverpool kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 12 February 2025 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Liverpool?
Everton 2 - 2 Liverpool.
Where is Everton vs Liverpool being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Liverpool part of?
Everton vs Liverpool is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Liverpool?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 24% chance of winning, Liverpool a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Liverpool?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Everton and Liverpool will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Liverpool?
Record (6 meetings): Everton 1W | Draws 1 | Liverpool 4W.
What form are Everton and Liverpool in?
Everton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Liverpool (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Everton's attack at 0.97x the league average against Liverpool's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Liverpool's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
24%
4.13
27%
3.77
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Everton xG
Total xG
2.81
1.69
Liverpool xG
4.13
24%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
19%
5.40
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
4%
22.29
16%
6.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Liverpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Everton and Liverpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Everton and 1.69 for Liverpool, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Liverpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Everton come into this having played 61 games, going 19W 17D 25L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Liverpool sit at 2.26 PPG from 61 outings (41W 15D 5L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Liverpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Liverpool carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.05 PPG clear of Everton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Everton's home form reads 12W 8D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Liverpool have taken 2.06 points per game from 31 outings (18W 10D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Liverpool are on 2.33 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Liverpool in 62%.
Defensively: Everton have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Liverpool
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Liverpool in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 19W 17D 25L in their last 61 games (1.21 PPG), while Liverpool have gone 41W 15D 5L in their last 61 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Liverpool away?
Liverpool's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.42 PPG; Liverpool away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Everton or Liverpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Liverpool in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Liverpool have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2021, when Liverpool won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton's record when hosting Liverpool specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Everton
2
Draws
7
Liverpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Liverpool?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 1, Liverpool have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Liverpool last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Everton 1-2 Liverpool.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Liverpool?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 32%, Liverpool 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Everton) and 61% (Liverpool).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Liverpool in 32%; Everton have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Liverpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Liverpool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Everton's recent matches and 64% of Liverpool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Liverpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Everton's recent games and 61% of Liverpool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Everton and Liverpool share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton and Liverpool finished level at 2-2 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.13 xG and Liverpool 1.69 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Everton beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.97 / defence 0.74 against Liverpool attack 1.47 / defence 0.78, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 24% | Draw 27% | Liverpool 49%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 41%, Liverpool 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Liverpool's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Everton (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Liverpool (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.