Crystal Palace 1-0 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Tottenham (38%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Crystal Palace face Tottenham.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Crystal Palace welcome Tottenham to Selhurst Park in Premier League (matchday 9). Kick-off is Sunday 27 October 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Crystal Palace stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Crystal Palace have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Crystal Palace are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Tottenham have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Tottenham's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Tottenham's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Crystal Palace's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Tottenham have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Crystal Palace.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Mar 2024, ended Crystal Palace 1–3 Tottenham — a Tottenham win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Tottenham have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Crystal Palace trading profile (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Tottenham trading profile (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Crystal Palace 59% and Tottenham 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Crystal Palace 52% | Tottenham 78%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Crystal Palace surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Tottenham have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Tottenham surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Crystal Palace recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.39 xG and Tottenham 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.845 / defence 0.902 | Tottenham attack 1.125 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.457. Data: built from Crystal Palace's last 46 games and Tottenham's last 46.
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 34% | Draw 28% | Tottenham 38%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 2.96 | Draw 3.52 | Tottenham 2.65. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.39 / 1.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Tottenham as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tottenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Crystal Palace's last 10 home games and Tottenham's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Crystal Palace 40% (last 10 home games) | Tottenham 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 9 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 34% | Draw 28% | Tottenham 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Crystal Palace 1.39 / Tottenham 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 0.845 / def 0.902 | Tottenham attack 1.125 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.457 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Tottenham xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crystal Palace vs Tottenham FAQs
What time does Crystal Palace vs Tottenham kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Tottenham?
Crystal Palace 1 - 0 Tottenham.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Tottenham part of?
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 9) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 34% chance of winning, Tottenham a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Crystal Palace and Tottenham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Crystal Palace vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Crystal Palace's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Tottenham's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Tottenham's attack versus Crystal Palace's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Crystal Palace's last 46 games and Tottenham's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
34%
2.96
28%
3.52
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
2.87
1.48
Tottenham xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
8%
12.98
9%
10.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crystal Palace vs Tottenham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.48 for Tottenham, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crystal Palace's recent record stands at 13W 13D 20L from 46 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have gone 24W 7D 15L across 46 games — 1.72 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tottenham by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crystal Palace heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Crystal Palace have managed 8W 6D 9L from their last 23 home games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tottenham's away record stands at 8W 7D 8L across their last 23 away games, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 2.00 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tottenham in 70%.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Blended
Tottenham
Blended
Crystal Palace (Home) vs Tottenham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crystal Palace
Blended
Tottenham
Blended
❓ Crystal Palace vs Tottenham Form FAQs
What form are Crystal Palace and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 13W 13D 20L in their last 46 games (1.13 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 24W 7D 15L in their last 46 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Tottenham away?
Tottenham's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.30 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Jan 2023, when Tottenham won Crystal Palace 0-4 Tottenham.
Crystal Palace's record when hosting Tottenham specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Crystal Palace
0
Draws
7
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Crystal Palace vs Tottenham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Tottenham?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Crystal Palace have won 3, Tottenham have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Tottenham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Tottenham 2-0 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Crystal Palace and Tottenham?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crystal Palace see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Tottenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 52%, Tottenham 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Crystal Palace and 74% for Tottenham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Crystal Palace have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crystal Palace vs Tottenham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crystal Palace and Tottenham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Crystal Palace's games and 61% of Tottenham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Crystal Palace and Tottenham matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Crystal Palace's matches and 74% of Tottenham's.
Do Crystal Palace and Tottenham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Crystal Palace's recent matches and 87% of Tottenham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crystal Palace defy the odds to beat Tottenham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crystal Palace beat Tottenham 1-0 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.39 xG and Tottenham 1.48 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tottenham landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.84 / defence 0.90 against Tottenham attack 1.12 / defence 1.08, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 34% | Draw 28% | Tottenham 38%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Crystal Palace win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 52%, Tottenham 78%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Tottenham's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Tottenham arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Crystal Palace winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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