Swindon Town 3-3 Morecambe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swindon Town at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Swindon Town face Morecambe.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Swindon Town and Morecambe meet at The County Ground in League Two (matchday 46). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Swindon Town have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Swindon Town's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Swindon Town are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Morecambe (all games): 2W 0D 8L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Morecambe away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Swindon Town, 0.60 for Morecambe — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Swindon Town's last 10 home games and Morecambe's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 90% of Swindon Town's games and 80% of Morecambe's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Swindon Town, 0 for Morecambe and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Swindon Town 2–2 Morecambe — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Swindon Town half-time and goal-timing data (last 91 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 31 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Morecambe half-time and goal-timing data (last 91 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swindon Town 62% versus Morecambe 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swindon Town 59% | Morecambe 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swindon Town 2.24 xG and Morecambe 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swindon Town attack 1.079 / defence 1.072 | Morecambe attack 1.059 / defence 1.435. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.369. Morecambe's defence rating of 1.435 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Swindon Town's projected output up. Data: built from Swindon Town's last 91 games and Morecambe's last 45.
Result probabilities: Swindon Town 53% | Draw 20% | Morecambe 26%. Fair-value odds: Swindon Town 1.88 | Draw 4.96 | Morecambe 3.77. Swindon Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (2.24 / 1.55) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Swindon Town at 53% — moderate model lean.
Poisson projects 3.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Swindon Town's last 10 home games and Morecambe's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Swindon Town 90% (last 10 home games) | Morecambe 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swindon Town vs Morecambe | Competition: League Two, matchday 46 | Venue: The County Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swindon Town 53% | Draw 20% | Morecambe 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% (Under 27%) | BTTS Yes 70% (No 30%) | xG Swindon Town 2.24 / Morecambe 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Swindon Town attack 1.079 / def 1.072 | Morecambe attack 1.059 / def 1.435 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Swindon Town xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Morecambe xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Swindon Town vs Morecambe FAQs
What time does Swindon Town vs Morecambe kick off?
Swindon Town vs Morecambe kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at The County Ground.
What was the final score in Swindon Town vs Morecambe?
Swindon Town 3 - 3 Morecambe.
Where is Swindon Town vs Morecambe being played?
The match is being played at The County Ground.
What competition is Swindon Town vs Morecambe part of?
Swindon Town vs Morecambe is a League Two fixture (matchday 46) (England).
Who is favourite to win Swindon Town vs Morecambe?
Our statistical model gives Swindon Town a 53% chance of winning, Morecambe a 26% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swindon Town vs Morecambe?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Swindon Town and Morecambe will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Swindon Town vs Morecambe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Swindon Town's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Morecambe's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.24. Flip it around — Morecambe's attack (1.06x) against Swindon Town's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from Swindon Town's last 91 games and Morecambe's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
53%
1.88
20%
4.96
26%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Swindon Town xG
Total xG
3.80
1.55
Morecambe xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
3.77
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.39
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
11%
9.42
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
3%
35.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Swindon Town vs Morecambe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Swindon Town vs Morecambe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Swindon Town and Morecambe expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Swindon Town and 1.55 for Morecambe, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Swindon Town vs Morecambe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 91 outings, Swindon Town have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 30W 24D 37L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Morecambe's form line: 27W 23D 41L from 91 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Swindon Town against 1.14 for Morecambe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Swindon Town have posted 1.56 PPG from their last 45 home games (20W 10D 15L).
On the road, Morecambe have gone 11W 8D 26L from their last 45 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swindon Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Swindon Town are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Morecambe are on 1.22 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Swindon Town have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 91 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swindon Town
Current Season
Morecambe
Current Season
Swindon Town (Home) vs Morecambe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Swindon Town
Current Season
Morecambe
Current Season
❓ Swindon Town vs Morecambe Form FAQs
What form are Swindon Town and Morecambe in coming into this match?
Swindon Town have gone 30W 24D 37L in their last 91 games (1.25 PPG), while Morecambe have gone 27W 23D 41L in their last 91 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swindon Town at home or Morecambe away?
Swindon Town's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swindon Town at home: 1.56 PPG; Morecambe away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Swindon Town and Morecambe, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Morecambe have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swindon Town have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Morecambe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Swindon Town
2
Draws
2
Morecambe
Recent Meetings
❓ Swindon Town vs Morecambe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Morecambe?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Swindon Town have won 0, Morecambe have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Swindon Town and Morecambe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 March 2025: Morecambe 1-0 Swindon Town.
Who has won more matches between Swindon Town and Morecambe?
Morecambe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Morecambe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swindon Town 56%, Morecambe 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Swindon Town and 69% for Morecambe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Morecambe in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swindon Town home games / Morecambe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Swindon Town vs Morecambe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Swindon Town and Morecambe matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Swindon Town's games and 58% of Morecambe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Swindon Town and Morecambe matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Swindon Town's matches and 69% of Morecambe's.
Do Swindon Town and Morecambe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 82% of Morecambe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swindon Town and Morecambe share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The County Ground, Regular Season - 46, as Swindon Town and Morecambe drew 3-3 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 2.24 xG and Morecambe 1.55 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Morecambe outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.08 / defence 1.07 against Morecambe attack 1.06 / defence 1.44, drawn from 91/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 53% | Draw 20% | Morecambe 26%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 59%, Morecambe 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swindon Town's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Morecambe's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swindon Town 1.25 PPG, Morecambe 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Swindon Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Morecambe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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