Crawley Town 2-0 Grimsby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Grimsby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 46 as Crawley Town welcome Grimsby to Broadfield Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Broadfield Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Grimsby — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Grimsby's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Crawley Town) versus 1.40 (Grimsby). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Crawley Town, 1 for Grimsby and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 3–2 with Crawley Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (91 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Grimsby in-play tendencies (91 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 57% versus Grimsby 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 54% | Grimsby 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.19 xG and Grimsby 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.903 / defence 1.042 | Grimsby attack 0.759 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.369. Data: 91 Crawley Town games / 91 Grimsby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 38% | Draw 28% | Grimsby 33%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Grimsby 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 70% | Grimsby 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Grimsby | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 38% | Draw 28% | Grimsby 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Crawley Town 1.19 / Grimsby 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.903 / def 1.042 | Grimsby attack 0.759 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Grimsby xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Grimsby kick off?
Crawley Town vs Grimsby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Grimsby?
Crawley Town 2 - 0 Grimsby.
Where is Crawley Town vs Grimsby being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Grimsby part of?
Crawley Town vs Grimsby is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Grimsby?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 38% chance of winning, Grimsby a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Grimsby?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Crawley Town and Grimsby will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Grimsby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Grimsby?
Record (3 meetings): Crawley Town 1W | Draws 1 | Grimsby 1W.
What form are Crawley Town and Grimsby in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Grimsby (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Crawley Town's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Grimsby's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Grimsby's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 91/91 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
38%
2.60
28%
3.51
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.28
1.08
Grimsby xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
10%
9.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.1 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Grimsby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Grimsby expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.08 for Grimsby, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Grimsby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crawley Town come into this having played 91 games, going 31W 20D 40L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Grimsby sit at 1.21 PPG from 91 outings (27W 29D 35L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.24 PPG, Grimsby on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Crawley Town's home form reads 19W 10D 16L across 45 games on their own ground, a 1.49 PPG return.
Away from home, Grimsby have taken 1.04 points per game from 45 outings (11W 14D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Grimsby are on 1.16 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 91 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Grimsby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Grimsby in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 31W 20D 40L in their last 91 games (1.24 PPG), while Grimsby have gone 27W 29D 35L in their last 91 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Grimsby away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.49 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.49 PPG; Grimsby away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Grimsby have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Grimsby won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Grimsby specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Crawley Town
1
Draws
3
Grimsby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Grimsby?
From 6 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 2, Grimsby have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Grimsby last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Crawley Town 0-2 Grimsby.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Grimsby?
Grimsby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Grimsby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 62%, Grimsby 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Crawley Town) and 42% (Grimsby).
On the defensive side: Grimsby in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Grimsby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Grimsby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Crawley Town's games and 51% of Grimsby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Grimsby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Crawley Town's recent games and 42% of Grimsby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Grimsby tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Grimsby in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Grimsby.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Grimsby 2-0 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 46, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.19 xG and Grimsby 1.08 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Grimsby landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.90 / defence 1.04 against Grimsby attack 0.76 / defence 0.91, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 38% | Draw 28% | Grimsby 33%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 54%, Grimsby 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Grimsby's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.24 PPG, Grimsby 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Grimsby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.