Salford City 1-1 Newport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Salford City (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Salford City face Newport County.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Newport County travel to The Peninsula Stadium to take on Salford City. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 28 January 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salford City stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Peninsula Stadium, Salford City have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Peninsula Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League Two games this season, Newport County have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Newport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Newport County have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Salford City are in the better shape of the two on current League Two data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
Salford City hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for Newport County, with 0 draws in between.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2024, ended 1–3 with Newport County winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Salford City and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Salford City in-play tendencies (71 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Newport County in-play tendencies (71 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 58% versus Newport County 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 55% | Newport County 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.72 xG and Newport County 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.993 / defence 0.845 | Newport County attack 0.924 / defence 1.328. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.151. Newport County bring a strong defensive rating of 1.328 — this is suppressing Salford City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 72 Salford City games / 71 Newport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 56% | Draw 26% | Newport County 19%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Newport County 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Salford City (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Salford City at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Salford City 20% | Newport County 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Newport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Jan 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 56% | Draw 26% | Newport County 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Salford City 1.72 / Newport County 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 0.993 / def 0.845 | Newport County attack 0.924 / def 1.328 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Salford City (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Newport County xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Newport County kick off?
Salford City vs Newport County kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 January 2025 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Newport County?
Salford City 1 - 1 Newport County.
Where is Salford City vs Newport County being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Newport County part of?
Salford City vs Newport County is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Newport County?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 56% chance of winning, Newport County a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Newport County?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Salford City and Newport County will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Newport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Newport County?
Record (6 meetings): Salford City 5W | Draws 0 | Newport County 1W.
What form are Salford City and Newport County in?
Salford City (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Newport County (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Salford City's attack rating (0.99) and Newport County's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Newport County's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
56%
1.79
26%
3.92
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.62
0.90
Newport County xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
3%
30.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.3 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Newport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Salford City and Newport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Salford City and 0.90 for Newport County, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Newport County?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Salford City's recent record stands at 24W 18D 29L from 71 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Newport County, meanwhile, have gone 23W 12D 36L across 71 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Newport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salford City on 1.27 PPG, Newport County on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Salford City have managed 13W 8D 15L from 36 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Newport County's away record stands at 9W 4D 23L across 36 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salford City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Salford City are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Newport County are on 1.34 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 71 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Blended
Newport County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Newport County in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 24W 18D 29L in their last 71 games (1.27 PPG), while Newport County have gone 23W 12D 36L in their last 71 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Newport County away?
Salford City's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.31 PPG; Newport County away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 1 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Salford City's record when hosting Newport County specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Salford City
1
Draws
2
Newport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Newport County?
From 10 meetings on record, Salford City have won 7, Newport County have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Newport County last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2026, when Salford City 2-1 Newport County.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Newport County?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Newport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 61%, Newport County 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Salford City) and 53% (Newport County). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Newport County in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Newport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Newport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Salford City's recent matches and 42% of Newport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salford City vs Newport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Salford City's matches and 53% of Newport County's.
Do Salford City and Newport County tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Newport County in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Salford City and Newport County share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 29, as Salford City and Newport County drew 1-1 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.72 xG and Newport County 0.90 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.99 / defence 0.84 against Newport County attack 0.92 / defence 1.33, drawn from 72/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 56% | Draw 26% | Newport County 19%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 55%, Newport County 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (71 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Newport County's trading profile (71 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.27 PPG, Newport County 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.