Barrow 0-1 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Harrogate Town at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Barrow vs Harrogate Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Harrogate Town travel to Holker Street to take on Barrow. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 17 February 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Barrow have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Holker Street, Barrow have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Harrogate Town — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
Harrogate Town away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Barrow) versus 0.50 (Harrogate Town). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Barrow, 4 for Harrogate Town and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.1 per contest from 9 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Harrogate Town winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.1 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Barrow trading profile (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Harrogate Town trading profile (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Barrow 47% versus Harrogate Town 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Barrow 47% | Harrogate Town 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Barrow 0.93 xG and Harrogate Town 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Barrow attack 0.739 / defence 1.149 | Harrogate Town attack 0.705 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.168. Barrow's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 76 Barrow games / 78 Harrogate Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Barrow 34% | Draw 32% | Harrogate Town 34%. Fair-value odds: Barrow 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Harrogate Town 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.88 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Barrow 40% | Harrogate Town 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Barrow vs Harrogate Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Holker Street • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Barrow 34% | Draw 32% | Harrogate Town 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Barrow 0.93 / Harrogate Town 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Barrow attack 0.739 / def 1.149 | Harrogate Town attack 0.705 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Barrow xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Harrogate Town xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Barrow vs Harrogate Town kick off?
Barrow vs Harrogate Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at Holker Street.
What was the final score in Barrow vs Harrogate Town?
Barrow 0 - 1 Harrogate Town.
Where is Barrow vs Harrogate Town being played?
The match is being played at Holker Street.
What competition is Barrow vs Harrogate Town part of?
Barrow vs Harrogate Town is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Barrow vs Harrogate Town?
Our statistical model gives Barrow a 34% chance of winning, Harrogate Town a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Barrow vs Harrogate Town?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Barrow and Harrogate Town will score (BTTS).
Will Barrow vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Barrow and Harrogate Town?
Record (9 meetings): Barrow 3W | Draws 2 | Harrogate Town 4W.
What form are Barrow and Harrogate Town in?
Barrow (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Harrogate Town (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Barrow's attack rating (0.74) and Harrogate Town's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Harrogate Town's attack versus Barrow's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 76/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Harrogate Town Win
34%
2.98
32%
3.12
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Barrow xG
Total xG
1.88
0.94
Harrogate Town xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 14.5 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Barrow vs Harrogate Town?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Barrow and Harrogate Town expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Barrow and 0.94 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Barrow vs Harrogate Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Barrow's recent record stands at 22W 20D 34L from 76 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Harrogate Town, meanwhile, have gone 19W 17D 40L across 76 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Barrow on 1.13 PPG, Harrogate Town on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Barrow have managed 13W 10D 14L from 37 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Harrogate Town's away record stands at 5W 12D 20L across 37 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Barrow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Barrow are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Harrogate Town are on 0.83 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 76 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Barrow
Current Season
Harrogate Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Barrow and Harrogate Town in coming into this match?
Barrow have gone 22W 20D 34L in their last 76 games (1.13 PPG), while Harrogate Town have gone 19W 17D 40L in their last 76 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Barrow at home or Harrogate Town away?
Barrow's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Barrow at home: 1.32 PPG; Harrogate Town away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Harrogate Town have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Barrow's record when hosting Harrogate Town specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Barrow
2
Draws
5
Harrogate Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Barrow and Harrogate Town?
From 10 meetings on record, Barrow have won 3, Harrogate Town have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Barrow and Harrogate Town last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Barrow 0-1 Harrogate Town.
Who has won more matches between Barrow and Harrogate Town?
Harrogate Town have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Barrow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Harrogate Town see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Barrow 43%, Harrogate Town 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Barrow) and 30% (Harrogate Town).
On the defensive side: Barrow keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Barrow have failed to score in 30% of games; Harrogate Town in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Barrow home games / Harrogate Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Barrow play Harrogate Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Barrow's recent matches and 46% of Harrogate Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Barrow vs Harrogate Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Barrow's recent games and 30% of Harrogate Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Barrow and Harrogate Town tend to score early?
Barrow have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Harrogate Town in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Harrogate Town edge out Barrow 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Harrogate Town beat Barrow 0-1 at Holker Street, Regular Season - 33, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Barrow 0.93 xG and Harrogate Town 0.94 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Barrow fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barrow attack 0.74 / defence 1.15 against Harrogate Town attack 0.70 / defence 0.99, drawn from 76/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Barrow 34% | Draw 32% | Harrogate Town 34%, with Barrow to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Harrogate Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barrow 47%, Harrogate Town 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Barrow's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Harrogate Town's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Barrow 1.13 PPG, Harrogate Town 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Harrogate Town win broke the near-deadlock. Barrow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.