Wigan 0-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wigan vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Derby make the trip to DW Stadium to face Wigan in League One, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Wigan (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Wigan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wigan at DW Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Derby have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Derby are 0.70 PPG clear of Wigan in recent League One fixtures (2.20 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wigan lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Wigan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Wigan — key trading statistics (67 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Derby — key trading statistics (67 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 58% versus Derby 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 43% | Derby 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.22 xG and Derby 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 1.058 / defence 0.939 | Derby attack 1.233 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.140. Derby have an above-average attack strength of 1.233 — the away xG of 1.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 Wigan games / 67 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 33% | Draw 29% | Derby 38%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Derby 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Wigan 50% | Derby 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: DW Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 33% | Draw 29% | Derby 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Wigan 1.22 / Derby 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 1.058 / def 0.939 | Derby attack 1.233 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Derby (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Derby xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Derby kick off?
Wigan vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at DW Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Derby?
Wigan 0 - 1 Derby.
Where is Wigan vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at DW Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Derby part of?
Wigan vs Derby is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 33% chance of winning, Derby a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Wigan and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Derby?
Record (1 meetings): Wigan 1W | Draws 0 | Derby 0W.
What form are Wigan and Derby in?
Wigan (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Derby (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Wigan's attack at 1.06x the league average against Derby's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Derby's attack (1.23x) against Wigan's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 22/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
33%
3.02
29%
3.46
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.54
1.32
Derby xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
9%
11.29
11%
8.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Wigan and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Wigan and 1.32 for Derby, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Wigan's recent record stands at 19W 18D 30L from 67 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Wigan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 33W 17D 17L across 67 games — 1.73 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derby by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wigan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Wigan have managed 11W 7D 14L from 32 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 14W 8D 10L across 32 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wigan are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.57 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Derby in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 19W 18D 30L in their last 67 games (1.12 PPG), while Derby have gone 33W 17D 17L in their last 67 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Derby away?
Derby's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.25 PPG; Derby away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Wigan or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Derby in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Wigan
0
Draws
1
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Derby?
From 2 meetings on record, Wigan have won 1, Derby have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2023, when Wigan 0-1 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 53%, Derby 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Wigan) and 47% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Derby in 34%; Wigan have failed to score in 28% of games; Derby in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Wigan's recent matches and 50% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wigan vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Wigan's recent games and 47% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Derby tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Derby in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Wigan 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Wigan 0-1 at DW Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.22 xG and Derby 1.32 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Wigan fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 1.06 / defence 0.94 against Derby attack 1.23 / defence 0.84, drawn from 22/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 33% | Draw 29% | Derby 38%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 43%, Derby 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (67 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derby's trading profile (67 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.