Derby 3-1 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Lincoln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lincoln make the trip to Pride Park Stadium to face Derby in League One, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Thursday 21 December 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Derby (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Pride Park Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pride Park Stadium.
Lincoln's overall League One record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lincoln away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Derby. A 0.60 PPG lead over Lincoln (2.00 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Derby lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Lincoln half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 48% versus Lincoln 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Derby 47% | Lincoln 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.16 xG and Lincoln 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.137 / defence 0.730 | Lincoln attack 0.867 / defence 0.755. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.159. Lincoln's defence strength of 0.755 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Derby's defence rating of 0.730 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 Derby games / 68 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 45% | Draw 33% | Lincoln 22%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.22 | Draw 3.03 | Lincoln 4.55. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.89 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Derby 50% | Lincoln 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Dec 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 45% | Draw 33% | Lincoln 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Derby 1.16 / Lincoln 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.137 / def 0.730 | Lincoln attack 0.867 / def 0.755 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Derby (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Lincoln xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Lincoln kick off?
Derby vs Lincoln kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 21 December 2023 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Lincoln?
Derby 3 - 1 Lincoln.
Where is Derby vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Lincoln part of?
Derby vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 45% chance of winning, Lincoln a 22% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Derby and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Lincoln?
Record (2 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 1 | Lincoln 1W.
What form are Derby and Lincoln in?
Derby (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Lincoln (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Derby's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Lincoln's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Lincoln's attack (0.87x) against Derby's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 66/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
45%
2.23
33%
3.02
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Derby xG
Total xG
1.89
0.73
Lincoln xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
7%
14.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 11.1 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Derby and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Derby and 0.73 for Lincoln, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derby's recent record stands at 32W 17D 17L from 66 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lincoln, meanwhile, have gone 22W 26D 18L across 66 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-D-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Derby against 1.39 for Lincoln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Derby have managed 18W 9D 6L from 33 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lincoln's away record stands at 10W 9D 14L across 33 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.11 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Lincoln in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Lincoln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 32W 17D 17L in their last 66 games (1.71 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 22W 26D 18L in their last 66 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Lincoln away?
Derby's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.91 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Derby or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Lincoln in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Lincoln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Derby
2
Draws
1
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Lincoln?
From 4 meetings on record, Derby have won 1, Lincoln have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2024, when Lincoln 0-0 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 48%, Lincoln 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Derby) and 36% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Lincoln in 36%; Lincoln in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Lincoln?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Derby's recent matches and 36% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Derby's recent games and 36% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Lincoln tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lincoln.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Lincoln 3-1 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.16 xG and Lincoln 0.73 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Derby beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.14 / defence 0.73 against Lincoln attack 0.87 / defence 0.76, drawn from 66/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 45% | Draw 33% | Lincoln 22%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 47%, Lincoln 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Lincoln's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.71 PPG, Lincoln 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. Lincoln (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.