Wigan 2-3 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wigan at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wigan vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wigan and Charlton meet at DW Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 31 October 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Wigan (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wigan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wigan have posted 6W 1D 3L at DW Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Wigan are significantly better at DW Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Charlton's overall League One record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Charlton have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Wigan against 1.50 for Charlton. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wigan lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with Wigan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Wigan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 57% versus Charlton 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 42% | Charlton 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.47 xG and Charlton 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 1.046 / defence 0.972 | Charlton attack 0.875 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.131. Data: 14 Wigan games / 60 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 49% | Draw 27% | Charlton 25%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Charlton 4.00. Wigan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wigan as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wigan if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wigan 40% | Charlton 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: DW Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 31 Oct 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 49% | Draw 27% | Charlton 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Wigan 1.47 / Charlton 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 1.046 / def 0.972 | Charlton attack 0.875 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Wigan (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Charlton xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Charlton kick off?
Wigan vs Charlton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 31 October 2023 at DW Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Charlton?
Wigan 2 - 3 Charlton.
Where is Wigan vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at DW Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Charlton part of?
Wigan vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 49% chance of winning, Charlton a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Wigan and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Charlton?
Record (2 meetings): Wigan 2W | Draws 0 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Wigan and Charlton in?
Wigan (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Wigan's attack rating (1.05) and Charlton's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.88x) against Wigan's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 14/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.74
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.43
0.96
Charlton xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
6%
17.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.4 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Wigan and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Wigan and 0.96 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wigan come into this having played 60 games, going 17W 16D 27L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Wigan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Charlton sit at 1.33 PPG from 60 outings (21W 17D 22L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Wigan against 1.33 for Charlton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Wigan's home form reads 9W 6D 13L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Charlton have taken 1.07 points per game from 28 outings (7W 9D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Wigan are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.53 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 62%.
Last 60 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Charlton in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 17W 16D 27L in their last 60 games (1.12 PPG), while Charlton have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Charlton away?
Wigan's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.18 PPG; Charlton away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Charlton have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wigan have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Wigan
1
Draws
3
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Charlton?
From 6 meetings on record, Wigan have won 2, Charlton have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Charlton 2-1 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 54%, Charlton 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Wigan) and 46% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Wigan have failed to score in 29% of games; Charlton in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Wigan's recent matches and 54% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wigan vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Wigan's recent games and 46% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Charlton tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Charlton in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charlton defy the odds to beat Wigan 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Wigan 2-3 at DW Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.47 xG and Charlton 0.96 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Charlton outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 1.05 / defence 0.97 against Charlton attack 0.88 / defence 1.08, drawn from 14/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 49% | Draw 27% | Charlton 25%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Charlton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 42%, Charlton 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (60 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (60 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wigan 1.12 PPG, Charlton 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Wigan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.