Portsmouth 2-2 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Portsmouth at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Portsmouth vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Charlton make the trip to Fratton Park to face Portsmouth in League One, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Portsmouth's overall League One record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Portsmouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Portsmouth have posted 7W 3D 0L at Fratton Park — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fratton Park.
Charlton (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Portsmouth. A 0.80 PPG lead over Charlton (2.60 vs 1.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 4 meetings, Charlton have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Portsmouth's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2023, ended 1–3 with Charlton winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Charlton have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Portsmouth half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 52% versus Charlton 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 41% | Charlton 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.55 xG and Charlton 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 1.055 / defence 0.729 | Charlton attack 1.041 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.151. Portsmouth's defence rating of 0.729 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Portsmouth games / 61 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 53% | Draw 27% | Charlton 21%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Charlton 4.76. Portsmouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Charlton lead the H2H ledger, but Portsmouth carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portsmouth at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Portsmouth if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Portsmouth 50% | Charlton 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 53% | Draw 27% | Charlton 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Portsmouth 1.55 / Charlton 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 1.055 / def 0.729 | Charlton attack 1.041 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Charlton xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portsmouth vs Charlton kick off?
Portsmouth vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Charlton?
Portsmouth 2 - 2 Charlton.
Where is Portsmouth vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Charlton part of?
Portsmouth vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 53% chance of winning, Charlton a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Portsmouth and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Portsmouth vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Charlton?
Record (4 meetings): Portsmouth 0W | Draws 1 | Charlton 3W.
What form are Portsmouth and Charlton in?
Portsmouth (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Charlton (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Portsmouth's attack rating (1.05) and Charlton's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (1.04x) against Portsmouth's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.75
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.42
0.87
Charlton xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
4%
22.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.0 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Portsmouth and 0.87 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Portsmouth come into this having played 61 games, going 27W 24D 10L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Portsmouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Charlton sit at 1.36 PPG from 61 outings (22W 17D 22L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Portsmouth against 1.36 for Charlton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Portsmouth's home form reads 14W 12D 3L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Charlton have taken 1.14 points per game from 29 outings (8W 9D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portsmouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Portsmouth are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.56 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 62%.
Defensively: Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portsmouth and Charlton in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 27W 24D 10L in their last 61 games (1.72 PPG), while Charlton have gone 22W 17D 22L in their last 61 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Charlton away?
Portsmouth's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 1.86 PPG; Charlton away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Portsmouth or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Charlton in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Portsmouth have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charlton won 3-0 on 17 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Portsmouth have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Portsmouth
3
Draws
3
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Charlton?
From 8 meetings on record, Portsmouth have won 2, Charlton have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Charlton 1-3 Portsmouth.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Portsmouth see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 55%, Charlton 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Portsmouth) and 48% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Charlton in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portsmouth play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Portsmouth's games and 55% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Portsmouth vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Portsmouth's recent games and 48% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portsmouth and Charlton tend to score early?
Portsmouth have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Charlton in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Portsmouth and Charlton share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 17, as Portsmouth and Charlton drew 2-2 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.55 xG and Charlton 0.87 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Charlton outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 1.05 / defence 0.73 against Charlton attack 1.04 / defence 1.11, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 53% | Draw 27% | Charlton 21%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 41%, Charlton 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Charlton's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.72 PPG, Charlton 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Portsmouth (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.