Portsmouth 3-1 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Portsmouth (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Portsmouth face Shrewsbury.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Shrewsbury travel to Fratton Park to take on Portsmouth in League One (matchday 43). The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Portsmouth have gone 7W 3D 0L — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Portsmouth have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shrewsbury stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Shrewsbury away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Portsmouth are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Portsmouth: 3 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Shrewsbury, with 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Portsmouth 3–0 Shrewsbury — a Portsmouth win.
The head-to-head data gives Portsmouth an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Portsmouth in-play and half-time data (last 87 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Shrewsbury in-play and half-time data (last 87 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 52% versus Shrewsbury 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 47% | Shrewsbury 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.76 xG and Shrewsbury 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 1.320 / defence 1.084 | Shrewsbury attack 0.803 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.180. Portsmouth carry an above-average attack rating of 1.320 — their 1.76 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Portsmouth's last 87 games and Shrewsbury's last 87.
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 55% | Draw 24% | Shrewsbury 22%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 1.83 | Draw 4.25 | Shrewsbury 4.58. The model has a clear lean to Portsmouth (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portsmouth at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Portsmouth's last 10 home games and Shrewsbury's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Portsmouth 80% (last 10 home games) | Shrewsbury 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, matchday 43 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 55% | Draw 24% | Shrewsbury 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Portsmouth 1.76 / Shrewsbury 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 1.320 / def 1.084 | Shrewsbury attack 0.803 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Shrewsbury xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury FAQs
What time does Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury?
Portsmouth 3 - 1 Shrewsbury.
Where is Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury part of?
Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury is a League One fixture (matchday 43) (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 55% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Portsmouth and Shrewsbury will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Portsmouth's attack at 1.32x the league average against Shrewsbury's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shrewsbury's attack versus Portsmouth's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Portsmouth's last 87 games and Shrewsbury's last 87 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.25
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.79
1.03
Shrewsbury xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
4%
26.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.1 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Portsmouth and 1.03 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 87 outings, Portsmouth have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 42W 31D 14L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Shrewsbury's form line: 30W 15D 42L from 87 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Portsmouth are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shrewsbury.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Portsmouth have posted 1.91 PPG from their last 43 home games (22W 16D 5L).
On the road, Shrewsbury have gone 11W 9D 23L from their last 43 away games — 0.98 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portsmouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Portsmouth are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 0.94 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 87 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Current Season
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Portsmouth (Home) vs Shrewsbury (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Portsmouth
Current Season
Shrewsbury
Current Season
❓ Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury Form FAQs
What form are Portsmouth and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 42W 31D 14L in their last 87 games (1.80 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 30W 15D 42L in their last 87 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Shrewsbury away?
Portsmouth's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 1.91 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.98 PPG.
Have Portsmouth or Shrewsbury been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Shrewsbury in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Portsmouth have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Dec 2023, when Portsmouth won Shrewsbury 0-3 Portsmouth.
Portsmouth's record when hosting Shrewsbury specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Portsmouth
2
Draws
0
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Shrewsbury?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Portsmouth have won 4, Shrewsbury have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Shrewsbury last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2024: Portsmouth 3-1 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Shrewsbury?
Portsmouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 60%, Shrewsbury 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Portsmouth) and 37% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Shrewsbury in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Portsmouth and Shrewsbury matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 33% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Portsmouth and Shrewsbury matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Portsmouth's recent games and 37% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portsmouth and Shrewsbury matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 63% of Shrewsbury's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Portsmouth cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Shrewsbury.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portsmouth beat Shrewsbury 3-1 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.76 xG and Shrewsbury 1.03 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Portsmouth beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 1.32 / defence 1.08 against Shrewsbury attack 0.80 / defence 1.02, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 55% | Draw 24% | Shrewsbury 22%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 47%, Shrewsbury 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Portsmouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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