Portsmouth 2-2 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portsmouth vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fratton Park plays host to Portsmouth versus Derby in League One, Regular Season - 42. Kick-off: Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Portsmouth have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Portsmouth's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Fratton Park this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Derby (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Derby have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Portsmouth's 2.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Derby's 2.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Portsmouth, 0 for Derby and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Portsmouth half-time and goal-timing data (86 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (86 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 51% versus Derby 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 46% | Derby 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.23 xG and Derby 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 1.280 / defence 1.048 | Derby attack 1.171 / defence 0.736. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.177. Portsmouth carry an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — their λ of 1.23 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Derby's defence strength of 0.736 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 86 Portsmouth games / 87 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 32% | Draw 26% | Derby 42%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Derby 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Portsmouth (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Portsmouth 70% | Derby 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 32% | Draw 26% | Derby 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Portsmouth 1.23 / Derby 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 1.280 / def 1.048 | Derby attack 1.171 / def 0.736 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Derby (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Derby xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portsmouth vs Derby kick off?
Portsmouth vs Derby kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Derby?
Portsmouth 2 - 2 Derby.
Where is Portsmouth vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Derby part of?
Portsmouth vs Derby is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 32% chance of winning, Derby a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Portsmouth and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Portsmouth vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Derby?
Record (3 meetings): Portsmouth 0W | Draws 3 | Derby 0W.
What form are Portsmouth and Derby in?
Portsmouth (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Derby (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Portsmouth's attack rating (1.28) and Derby's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derby's attack (1.17x) against Portsmouth's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 86/87 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
32%
3.11
26%
3.84
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.68
1.44
Derby xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
8%
13.17
12%
8.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Portsmouth and 1.44 for Derby, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Portsmouth's recent record stands at 42W 30D 14L from 86 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 45W 19D 22L across 86 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.81 PPG for Portsmouth against 1.79 for Derby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Portsmouth have managed 22W 15D 5L from 42 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 20W 9D 13L across 42 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Portsmouth are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.58 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Derby in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 86 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portsmouth and Derby in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 42W 30D 14L in their last 86 games (1.81 PPG), while Derby have gone 45W 19D 22L in their last 86 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Derby away?
Portsmouth's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 1.93 PPG; Derby away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Portsmouth or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Derby in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derby won 4-0 on 13 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Portsmouth have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Portsmouth
6
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Derby?
From 8 meetings on record, Portsmouth have won 0, Derby have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Portsmouth 0-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 60%, Derby 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Portsmouth) and 48% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Derby in 38%; Derby in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portsmouth play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 45% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portsmouth vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Portsmouth's recent games and 48% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portsmouth and Derby tend to score early?
Portsmouth have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Derby in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Portsmouth and Derby share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portsmouth and Derby finished level at 2-2 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 42, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.23 xG and Derby 1.44 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 1.28 / defence 1.05 against Derby attack 1.17 / defence 0.74, drawn from 86/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 32% | Draw 26% | Derby 42%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 46%, Derby 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (86 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Derby's trading profile (86 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.81 PPG, Derby 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Portsmouth (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.