Port Vale 0-3 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port Vale vs Stockport County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Stockport County travel to Vale Park to take on Port Vale. The game is scheduled for Monday 27 October 2025, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Port Vale have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port Vale at Vale Park this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Stockport County — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stockport County's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Stockport County's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Port Vale's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Port Vale in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Stockport County in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 46% versus Stockport County 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 41% | Stockport County 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 0.97 xG and Stockport County 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.743 / defence 1.146 | Stockport County attack 1.232 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.078. Port Vale's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Stockport County have an above-average attack strength of 1.232 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Port Vale games / 59 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 24% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 50%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Stockport County 2.00. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Port Vale 40% | Stockport County 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Stockport County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Monday 27 Oct 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 24% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Port Vale 0.97 / Stockport County 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.743 / def 1.146 | Stockport County attack 1.232 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Stockport County xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Stockport County kick off?
Port Vale vs Stockport County kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 27 October 2025 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Stockport County?
Port Vale 0 - 3 Stockport County.
Where is Port Vale vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Stockport County part of?
Port Vale vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 24% chance of winning, Stockport County a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Port Vale and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Stockport County?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Port Vale and Stockport County in?
Port Vale (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Stockport County (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Port Vale's attack at 0.74x the league average against Stockport County's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Port Vale's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
24%
4.16
26%
3.87
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.49
1.52
Stockport County xG
4.16
24%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
5%
19.04
19%
5.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.52 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Port Vale's recent record stands at 25W 18D 16L from 59 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Port Vale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stockport County, meanwhile, have gone 30W 18D 11L across 59 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port Vale on 1.58 PPG, Stockport County on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Port Vale have managed 13W 9D 7L from 29 games — 1.66 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stockport County's away record stands at 11W 11D 7L across 29 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Port Vale are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.51 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Blended
Stockport County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 25W 18D 16L in their last 59 games (1.58 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 30W 18D 11L in their last 59 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Stockport County away?
Port Vale's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.66 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Stockport County in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 28 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Port Vale
0
Draws
1
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Stockport County?
From 2 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 1, Stockport County have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2026, when Stockport County 1-2 Port Vale.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 45%, Stockport County 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Port Vale) and 34% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Port Vale have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Port Vale's recent matches and 62% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Port Vale's recent games and 34% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Stockport County tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stockport County run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Port Vale.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Port Vale 0-3 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 14, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 0.97 xG and Stockport County 1.52 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Port Vale fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Stockport County outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.74 / defence 1.15 against Stockport County attack 1.23 / defence 1.02, drawn from 13/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 24% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 50%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 41%, Stockport County 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stockport County's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.58 PPG, Stockport County 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.